November 14, 2009 by f4denz.

Oh My God- Real Salt Lake in PK’s punches their ticket to Seattle as Nick Rimando comes up huge with 3 saves and then Ned Grabavoy who came on in the final minutes of the match puts it into the back of the net and RSL win the match and will face the LA Galaxy for the MLS Cup. Folks I will see you in Seattle but I am heading to the pub to get my drink on.

Do you Believe????

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November 14, 2009 by f4denz.

Well we ended the regulation time still tied at 0-0 and of the three points I made at the half, well two still are huge in the match:

1. RSL equipment, too many chances created because our guys are slipping. I wouldn’t care if it was both sides having issue but Chicago is having no such issues
2. Finish, Finish, Finish. Chances were there but either we failed to shoot and went one too many passes or we simply missed our chances.

Can RSL find a way to finish in extra time or will we end up in PK?

Come on boys, let’s get this done I want to go to Seattle. This is where fitness should be to our advantage.

OFF MY SOAPBOX
win one and tomorrow will take care of itself

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November 14, 2009 by f4denz.

Well three things really come to mind as I think about what I just saw in the first half:

1. Salazar has to call it both ways, if touching Blanco is a foul then those calls have to be given to RSL as well. How many kicks to the shins do our guys have to take to get a call? I don’t expect any favors but it has to be called even.
2. RSL needs to find a way to get the right equipment, too many times this year they have slipped and slided around the pitch and tonight it almost cost them.
3. Finish, Finish, Finish. We are controlling the match but we have to find a way to get past Busch.

RSL has dominated possession and with only one real chance for Chicago it is clear that RSL is the more aggressive team and if they can find a way to finish well then we can expect to be playing next weekend. I think we need more effort out of the midfield, they have shown moments of brilliance but only Will Johnson has been going at top speed from the first whistle until the halftime whistle. Oh and somebody mark Blanco, all the time he hasn’t been able to bite us yet, so let’s keep it that way.

OFF MY SOAPBOX
win this one and then we can have some real fun

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November 14, 2009 by f4denz.

Well for the second straight year RSL is in a Conference Final series, this year it is the Eastern Conference Final against the Chicago Fire. Of the 4 teams left in the playoffs only Chicago and RSL made it to the conference final round last year with RSL in the West and Chicago in the East and both of them lost their matches but this year one of the two teams will make their way to Seattle for a shot at the MLS Cup.

So let’s start with the projected lineups from the Official Match Guide:

For RSL if the injury report is correct and William Conde and Gonzalo Segares are truly questionable and not in the lineup it is a very good thing as it would like force both Pause and Thorrington to play back further to support backline against the speed of Findley, Espindola, and eventually Movsisyan. While RSL has a number of players with minor injuries all are listed as probable (Beckerman, Beltran, Horst, Johnson, Morales, and Movsisyan) and they should be able to put out their best possible lineup. One big question is the injury status of Brian McBride, if he isn’t 100% I have to expect that the Fire would go with Nyarko who looked really good for the final 35 minutes of the match against the Rev’s last week.

So for me there are two battles that will take place during the match that will be the deciding factor, the RSL defensive midfield limiting touches and threats from Blanco and the speed of the RSL attack against a Fire backline that has age and experience issues.

The Fire defensive backline includes: C.J. Brown is 34, and Brandon Prideaux is 33, while Robinson has just 908 minutes of playing time this year and Daniel Woolard has less than half of that with just 409 minutes. The size and skill level of Robinson and Woolard is simply lacking when compared to that of Conde and Segares, even Tim Ward could provide an experience boost, but the backline hasn’t been the same since Bakary Soumare left the team to go play in France. So if Conde and Segares are able to come back, neither is known as speedy but they have a lot more experience, but you would have to question their fitness and feel for the game after being gone for weeks with injuries. I think with their backline set pieces should be an area that RSL could take advantage of if they can find a way to get a consistent delivery of the ball into dangerous positions. While the defense of the Fire looked good against New England last week, but New England doesn’t have anywhere near the attacking players that RSL does. Jankauskas and Dube don’t present the speed or finishing ability of Findley and Espindola, but I am going to predict that Yura gets the start with Findley in this one as RSL knows an early lead could be a back breaker against the Fire and force them to open up.

I do expect that Chicago will want to start the match with a slow and deliberate approach as they know Blanco, Mc Bride, Thorrington are all over 30 and don’t have the speed to hang with the younger and faster RSL midfield, they will look for their chances but I would expect them to look to keep the match low scoring and try to turn it up for the final minutes. If RSL can matchup tight against Blanco and limit his touches without fouling him and giving Chicago a lot of free kicks than our chances will improve greatly, and I think Will Johnson is the guy to do that. He is younger, faster, and tougher than Blanco and has an energy level that the Energizer Rabbit would be envious of. Beckerman would then need to pick up his level once again, last week he showed the heart, talent, and passion that made him a fan favorite and if Javi can have a match like he did last week it will really limit the ability of Pause and Thorrington to move forward in the attack.

So let’s look at the position matchups (using regular season stats):

So you can see that the matchup of the primary strikers has a slight advantage to RSL, which gets bigger when you add in the player likely to come off the bench. Chicago has more scoring in their midfield but RSL gets more assists from their midfielders, and if Defenders are judged by their minutes played then RSL has a huge advantage as far as stability goes. The keepers are almost dead even as both as solid as you could want and they finished 7 and 8 in the league.

RSL holds an advantage in goals scored both in the regular season with 43 scored, tops among teams making the playoffs and in the post season they have 4 goals again tops of the teams still in the playoffs. Chicago scored 39 goals in the regular season and they have 3 in the playoffs, on defense the Fire allowed just 34 in the regular season, RSL had 35 but in the playoffs both teams have allowed 2 goals to be scored against them. So despite the reputation of Blanco and McBride, RSL would really seem to have a very slight offensive advantage and both teams are very even on defense as far as goals allowed but I would have to believe the experience factor would mean that the RSL backline is less likely to make a mistake.

It would be easy to be critical of the RSL road form in the regular season as only two teams finished with fewer road wins than RSL’s 2 (3 other teams also had just 2 road wins), but the same could be said of the Fire home form (5-4-6) in which only one team had fewer home wins and their -1 home goal differential was 2^nd worst in MLS as well.

For me I really think the mental factor will be a huge part of the match, consider that RSL for the first time in team history came back from a two goal road deficit to win a match and they did that in the playoffs against the team with the second best home record in 2009 and they have to believe that anything is possible. Most people didn’t expect RSL to make the playoffs, let alone upset the defending MLS Champions and Supporter Shield winner, so there is no pressure on them as they already have over delivered on their season. The Fire are coming off a late win against a bitter rival in a series that was tough and physical and now they face a team that nobody expected to be there, could they be looking past RSL and already making plans for Seattle? Given that the previous match ups between these two teams have been tight and very close over the last two seasons, they shouldn’t be looking too far ahead but with everyone saying you should win, you start to believe the hype.

I think this match is going to be the opposite of what most experts are predicting, I think it ends up being 3-2 as RSL gets an early goal from Findley that forces Chicago to change their defensive game plan and play attacking soccer and while they have the tools to score if they open up it will allow RSL to simply counter with their great speed and secure the win.

OFF MY SOAPBOX
win one, period and the rest will take care of itself

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