Real Salt Lake vs. Columbus (match preview)

Well just weeks ago a lot of people wrote RSL off, heck a lot of fans wrote RSL off, ah hell a lot of fans still have written RSL off (I can’t believe some people are making excuses or not changing all their plans to attend our only home playoff match of the year), but in the end we are in the playoffs and like last year we are the underdogs again. I have found few of the soccer pundits that are giving RSL a chance, which is funny considering how dominating our team can be at home. But I am getting ahead of myself.

Counting your Chickens

Wow talk about cocky, so I haven’t booked my flight to Seattle yet because there is a lot of work to be done to get there, but Columbus is already selling Eastern Conference final tickets (https://securemls.mlsnet.com/t102/tickets/2009/playoffs/ ) impressive considering that last year’s defending MLS Champs faced off against a team that squeaked into the playoffs and got beat cold. You might think that the folks at Crew Stadium might have waited until this weekend’s match was over as to not provide RSL fans or players with some bulletin board fodder, but no they just assume they will beat us. Here is hoping the only thing they do is eat a lot of crow and issue a lot of refunds.

The lack of respect doesn’t stop there (http://www.mlsnet.com/news/mls_news.jsp?ymd=20091028&content_id=7565544&vkey=mlscup2009&fext=.jsp ) where the official MLS look at the match says that Columbus dominates RSL in every category and if you look at fact that the mighty Crew ended the season with just two more wins than RSL. The offense of RSL scored more goals than Columbus, 43 to 41 and the great defense of Columbus gave up 31 goals and the horrid defense of RSL gave up just 4 more with a total of 35. Now there is one area that I can say that Columbus was a far superior team and that is their road performance where they got results in 10 of their 15 matches and had an even goal differential having scored 16 and given up that same total. While RSL got a total of 4 results (2 wins and 2 draws) with a dismal 9 goals scored and 24 allowed, but RSL made it into the playoffs based on their MLS best home record 9-1-5 while tying the MLS record for largest home goal differential with an impressive +23 (meaning we scored 1.53 more goals than our opponents at Rio Tinto). Now Columbus was the second best team at home with a 9-2-4 record but their +10 goal differential only equals .67 more goals than their opponents, but what does that mean?

Well if RSL lives up to their reputation at home and wins by more than a goal, and Columbus lives up to their home average and wins at home by a goal, well that would mean that RSL should win the matchup and move on in the playoffs, but life is never that simple.

Previous matchups

So RSL and Columbus faced off twice this year, just like they will in this opening round of the playoffs with one match at home for each team but only once did these two teams matchup at full strength and that was the April 2^nd match at Rio Tinto when the lineups were:
Columbus Crew — William Hesmer, Jed Zayner (Andy Iro 85), Chad Marshall, Danny O’Rourke, Gino Padula (Steven Lenhart 63), Eddie Gaven, Brian Carroll, Emmanuel Ekpo, Robbie Rogers (Alejandro Moreno 63), Guillermo Barros Schelotto, Jason Garey and RSL — Nick Rimando, Tony Beltran, Nat Borchers, Jamison Olave, Chris Wingert, Clint Mathis (Ned Grabavoy 75), Kyle Beckerman, Javier Morales (Jean Alexandre 85), Will Johnson, Robbie Findley (Andy Williams 70), Yura Movsisyan. On that night it was all RSL as was RSL taking 17 shots to 8 for the Crew, RSL put 8 on target to 2 for the Crew and in the end it was a 4-1 win for RSL, but it was important how the match unfolded with RSL getting a huge early goal on a Crew mistake just 2 minutes into the match. Columbus came back just 20 minutes later to tie the match up at 1-1 but then Robbie Findley struck just 7 minutes later for his second unassisted goal of the match and the second half stayed all RSL as another goal for Findley netted him his first MLS hat trick, and Kyle Beckerman opened up his 2009 scoring account and Clint Mathis earned his first two assists of the season.

The second match was held in mid July in Columbus and neither team put out a full roster: Real Salt Lake — Nick Rimando, Chris Wingert, Nat Borchers, Jamison Olave, Tony Beltran (Pablo Campos 46), Robbie Russell, Clint Mathis, Javier Morales, Ned Grabavoy, Yura Movsisyan, Robbie Findley (Raphael Cox 61) and Columbus Crew — William Hesmer, Frankie Hejduk, Eric Brunner, Andy Iro, Gino Padula, Eddie Gaven, Brian Carroll, Danny O’Rourke, Duncan Oughton, Steven Lenhart (Kevin Burns 80), Jason Garey (Jed Zayner 86). RSL was victimized by Steven Lenhart who got his first goal of the 2009 season in the 23^rd minute and Jason Garey who netted his first against RSL in April added his second and third of the the season to give Columbus a 3-0 lead and the only real highlight for RSL was Raphael Cox who got his first MLS goal in the 76^th minute but in the end it was the Crew who won this match 3-1.

The Playoffs

So while almost every expert is picking Columbus to win the series and for good reason you have the very best team (according to their 2^nd straight Supporters Shield) facing the team seeded number 8 and who just scrapped their way into the playoffs on the final weekend. Well according to the projected lineups from the Official Match Guide:

So it looks like both teams will line up in variations of the 4-4-2 and lead to some very interesting matchups, perhaps none will be bigger than Findley and Espindola against Brunner (or Marshall) and O’Rourke it will be the speed and agility of RSL’s forwards against the size of the Columbus defense as Marshall and Brunner are both 6′4″ and O’Rourke is 6′0″. For RSL it would seem silly to hope that All Star, sometime US National team player and defending MLS defender of the year Chad Marshall is able to start over rookie Brunner but with Chad coming off a long layoff due to a MCL injury and the fact that he has just started training with the team early this week, it might just be a real advantage for RSL to get a guy who is still hurting, not fully fit, and probably unable to quickly turn to cover the onrushing attackers. The other big matchup will be what happens between the midfields and how do Beckerman and Johnson slow down Eddie Gaven and Robbie Rogers who will be attacking up the wings while GBS attacks in the middle? Will we see another solid offensive and defensive effort from Andy Williams, if we do that might just be the key to the match. I think we have seen that Tony Beltran has matched up well against some of the best strikers in MLS this year and he will need to do so again, plus he will need to keep his eyes open for Frankie Hejduk who often gets forward in support of the Crew attack.

The match guide for this matchup had something interesting in it:

Vs.

It is interesting that RSL chose to put Yura on this chart, but if it is Espindola who gets the start it may mean fewer goals in the starting lineup but as of late Fabi has been a work horse and creating really good chances. It is also interesting that Columbus list both Marshall and Brunner on the back line and O’Rourke in the midfield which would put them in a very defensive formation which in the playoff format and given their previous match at Rio Tinto. This just adds some mystery to what the real lineups will be for both sides.

I do think that when you have the two best home teams in MLS matching up it is like that each side will win their home match, so it all comes down to which team can do so by a larger margin and given the matchups between the two this year and the numbers behind how the teams produce at home it very well could be very tight and end with a single goal being the difference. Given that RSL has played 3 quality matches in a row and scored 5 goals in their last 3 matches while giving up just a single goal, and that Columbus has scored just once in their last 3 matches while giving up 2, I have to pick RSL to win their home leg by a score of 3-1 to give themselves a 2 goal pad heading into the return match on Thursday.

Other Predictions

Well my prediction of a draw in the first match was right on target and my 0-0 score was even more spot on (but it really could have ended in a 1-1 match, so what about the rest of the Playoff matches?

Chicago 2 – New England 1
LA Galaxy 2 – Chivas USA 2

Some other thoughts about the playoffs

I will say that I think RSL has once again dropped the ball, I get the whole scheduling issue and dealing with MLS and the networks and none of that bothers me as much as the fact that it appears there will be no playoff gear sold for the one and only home playoff match of 2009? Really, you couldn’t repeat even the cheap hoodies of last year (as I wear my conference final one), nothing no cheap scarves, not banners, nothing, wow so instead of spending upwards of $100 like I did at both home playoff matches last year, this year I will be keeping that money in my pocket. Yes they will offer 50% of merchandise at the store, which is nice but when you own 90% of what they have in the store it is nowhere near the draw as something to commemorate our second consecutive year in the playoffs. I understand time was tight and that we didn’t know who we were playing until Monday, but the local shops could have kicked up something on a tight deadline and you could have taken a chunk of the money in my billfold and a lot of others I am sure. Instead that money will go in my RSL in the Cup fund, and I have no doubt that the people in Seattle will find many ways to capitalize off RSL’s appearance in the MLS Cup.

OK, I sometimes (often) am a bit slow to the new music scene, in part that I am old and in part that I have a hard time with most music created after 1989, but I love the song “You’re Going Down” by the Sick Puppies and am adopting it as my RSL theme song for the rest of the year. The video is a bit cheesy but can be found at: http://www.last.fm/music/Sick+Puppies/+videos/+1-O0M5D5OA-d4 and someone needs to do a video of the highlights from the 4-1 beatdown of Columbus from earlier this year and us this song as the background. I don’t know who picks the music for prematch but I would love to hear this one tomorrow (of course they would need to use the edited version)

It is likely going to be a small crowd tomorrow night with the Holiday and the U of U match, if you still need tickets call or email your ticket rep now, if you don’t know your rep then just call (801) 727-2700 or -2702.

It was nice to watch RSL practice and even with the cold weather the team went through drills and looked loose and ready for the match. Well until tomorrow.

OFF MY SOAPBOX
RSL will bring on the treats for the fans, and tricks for Columbus on Halloween afternoon

This entry was posted on October 30, 2009 at 9:49 pm and is filed under The soapbox. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response or trackback from your own site.