For RSL it all comes down to RSL vs. Colorado (match preview)

It is funny how the league tried to build the Real Salt Lake vs. Colorado rivalry before the first match between the two sides, I think for most fans the natural rival was actually fellow 2005 expansion side Chivas USA, but all that changed one night at Rice Eccles Stadium.

(not sure who really owns this photo, but if you let me know I will be happy to give you full credit for it)

It was the simple act of disrespect for RSL fans (who had given him crap all night) by Pablo Mastroeni that created the rivalry between the two team and it has been a bitter one ever since. How bitter, well rumor still has it that there is a Pablo jersey hanging in the private restroom of Dave Checketts office at Rio Tinto Stadium (I have tried to get in to get a picture but so far no luck). This will be the third year that the final matchup between the two sides has playoff implications, last year the last minute goal by Yura put RSL in and Colorado out of the playoffs. In 2007 it was a late goal by Robbie Findley that gave RSL a 1-0 win over the Rapids, along with some other results that eliminated them from the playoffs. The history of the matchups played in Utah has been a series of close matches with only two of them ever being decided by 2 goals or more, but since Jason Kreis took over in 2007 we haven’t lost to Colorado at home (2-0-1) with 4 goals for and only one goal against.

I wrote about all the playoff implications of this match, but it comes down to one simple fact if we do not win, we do not make the playoffs no matter what else happens. So all the talk is over and it now is about handling our business at home, which for RSL is the only place they have really done the job over the last couple years. At home RSL is 8-1-5 with a huge +20 goal differential, for Colorado they are 2-7-5 on the road with a -8 goal differential. For Colorado they are looking to find a way to get a win, but it has been 6 straight matches without a win for them (0-2-4) and Colorado hasn’t won on the road since May so they are facing a uphill battle. Their top goal scorer Conor Casey hasn’t found the back of the net in regular play in 5 matches (he does have 3 PK goals in their last 5 matches, with two in stoppage time).

Of the players currently with the Rapids only 5 have ever scored against RSL and they are lead by Omar Cummings who has two goals in 7 matches against RSL, the others are Conor Casey, Kimura, LaBrocca, and Noonan all with a single goal against RSL. For RSL there are 7 players who have scored against Colorado, leading the way is Clint Mathis with 6 goals and 9 assists in 26 matches, Ned Grabavoy, Fabian Espindola, and Yura Movsisyan all have found the back of the net twice in their careers against Colroado. Andy Williams, Robbie Findley, and Will Johnson all have a single goal against Colorado. It is possible that all 7 of those players could see action against the Rapids and 4 of them are listed in the projected starting lineup from the official match guide:

As always I doubt the final lineup will look like this and expect a change or two on both sides. For RSL the injury report has 3 guys listed as probable (all participated in practice today), Espindola, Wingert and Nelson Gonzalez, the Rapids are not so lucky as they will be without Colin Clark, Jacob Peterson, and Jamie Smith all listed as out. So last week we had a battle of two teams who if they scored first they won the match, and that trend continued as TFC scored first and got the win. This week Colorado comes in with a 10-3-2 record when scoring first, RSL is still 8-0-3 when getting the first goal, RSL has come back twice when giving up the first goal to win and have a 2-12-2 record. Colorado has not come back to get a win when giving up the first goal and have a 0-6-7 record in those matches.

So RSL and Colorado are both in the top 5 in goals scored this year, and both teams do a majority of their scoring in the second half. The Rapids have scored 28 of their 42 goals in the second half, while RSL has 29 of their 40 being scored in the final 45 minutes. RSL holds a huge lead in the final 15 minutes with a league leading 17 goals, while Colorado has 9 (two PK’s in recent weeks), but Colorado does a great job at the start of the second half with 14 goals between the 46^th and 60^th minutes. Colorado also has scored 8 goals in the first 15 minutes of matches, while RSL has just two goals in the first 15 minutes. RSL will need to be careful as we have allowed 8 goals in the first 15 minutes of the first half and 6 in the first 15 of the second half.

So as is the case with way too many MLS matches the officials could have a huge impact, head official Jorge Gonzalez has been in charge of 38 matches and issued 11 red cards and called for 13 penalties (over 1/3 of the matches he has been involved in). He was the head official in the RSL 0-0 draw at RFK earlier this year, so knowing that this is a heated rivalry I hope that US Soccer and MLS have told him to let the boys play. I would hate to see the season end for either of these teams based on a call by an official; it needs to be decided on the pitch by the players.

This match also will likely be the deciding factor in the Rocky Mountain Cup, but to win the trophy RSL will need to win by at least two goals, which is also the best scenario for them as far as the playoffs go. With Colorado winning the first two years of the competition but RSL has claimed the trophy the last two years and hopefully can keep it in our trophy case. So it is time to pick some matches but before I tell you what I think will happen in the RSL match I need to put up my predictions for the other matches this weekend.

Predictions

Toronto 1 at New York 1 (5:30 start time)
DC United 2 at Kansas City 0 (6:30 start time)
Dallas 1 at Seattle 1 (8:30 start time)
San Jose 1 at LA Galaxy 3 (8:30 start time)
Sunday matches
Houston 2 at Chivas 1 (1:00 start time)
New England 0 at Columbus 2 (4:00 start time)

So all of that means that if RSL can win by two goals they would be in the playoffs as the number 8 seed and face off against Columbus in the first round, well I think not only will RSL win by two goals, I expect them to play the most motivated match of the year. With over 17,000 tickets sold as of noon today, and with over 3,000 Xango partners in the stands it should be a loud and lively crowd to cheer on RSL to a 4-1 victory over the Colorado Rapids. With the results as I have predicted them, RSL will not know until Sunday evening if they make the post season for a second year or not. All I can say is be ready to quickly call and order your playoff tickets on Sunday night or Monday morning.

OFF MY SOAPBOX
pray, win, and pray some more

This entry was posted on October 24, 2009 at 12:29 am and is filed under The soapbox. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response or trackback from your own site.