A lot of RSL information
October 22, 2009 by f4denz.
9-21 RSL town hall meeting
Well in an attempt to get as much information to all of you as possible, I thought I would attend the town hall meeting with Bill Manning and Garth Lagerwey out at Rio Tinto this evening. About 20-25 people in attendance as Bill kicks things off, the food looks good it is a shame that I am not hungry. Bill goes through a bit of his background and history with MLS and soccer, did you know he was an All American? Talking a bit about the expectations and how we have grown from the first 3 years, he is thankful for the home field advantage as we have lost just two matches since moving to RSL, but nobody is happy with the current results and their number one focus is how the team performs on the field.
OK at this point I stopped taking notes per request and he is why I have no problem doing so, there is a lot of information that people have speculated on for months from both last season and this year that they are willing to share but don’t want to be part of the public record. Their concern is info that could damage the team or lead to other issues. I will only say this, every question was dealt with in a honest and straight forward manner.
I highly suggest that you take some time to come out to one of the town hall meetings, no question was ignored and there was some great info shared that I found great value in and think that most of you that are passionate about the team will also get value from.
The Playoffs??
So I have seen a number of good write-ups on RSL’s chances at the playoffs and thought I would add in my thoughts as well as some of their info and let you know that Garth has a kick ass chart of all the possibilities but know this, if we win and Toronto doesn’t win or draw that the chances are actually fairly good for us. I will see if I can get a copy from him to post tomorrow or Friday, and if we win there is a good chance that they will play the FC Dallas at Seattle match on the big screen after our match so we can see what happens with them.
McCarthy’s Musings: Breaking Through The MLS Wild Card Tiebreakers
Is working through all of the Wild Card possibilities making your head spin? Have no fear. Kyle McCarthy boils all of the scenarios down to a few key points in his Wednesday Musings.
Oct 21, 2009 8:04:58 AM by
Kyle McCarthy
Working through tiebreakers makes my head spin. One glance at the lengthy list of tiebreakers compiled here should be more than enough to figure out why.
In the Monday MLS Breakdown, I took a brief look at the possible Wild Card scenarios without going into much detail. The mind-numbing detail can still be found in the lengthy list of tiebreakers, but I’ve boiled that page down into five relatively digestible points.
1. If Chicago wants to finish second in the Eastern Conference, it better pick up at least a point tomorrow night or hope D.C. United draws or loses.
The simplest way for the Fire to seal second spot in the East and home-field advantage in the first round involves getting a positive result when Chivas USA visits Toyota Park tomorrow night. If Chicago collapses at home, United is well-suited to finish second in the East with a victory in Kansas City on Saturday. Only a four-way tie between Chicago, D.C., New England and Toronto on 42 points would keep D.C. from second spot with a win – in that instance, Toronto FC would emerge as the two seed. A United loss would ensure the Fire goes into the playoffs as the second seed in the East regardless of its result on Thursday night because Chicago holds an edge in all possible tiebreakers over New England and Toronto FC. Those tiebreaker edges would make it quite difficult for the Fire to miss out on the playoffs even with a loss to the Red-and-White, but a Colorado victory, a D.C. victory and a FC Dallas victory coupled with losses or draws by New England and Toronto FC would do the trick.
2. Of the four teams starting the weekend on 39 points, Toronto FC is in the best overall spot and stands to gain the most in the unlikely event that every team pulls through.
As mentioned in the previous paragraph, TFC would take second place in the Eastern Conference in the event of a four-way tie between Chicago (in the event of a loss to Chivas USA), D.C. United and New England. Even if Chicago wins or draws and Colorado wins at Real Salt Lake, the Reds would still stand to benefit if FC Dallas joins D.C. and N.E. in the win column because they would win a similar four-way tiebreaker on 42 points to grab the final playoff spot. TFC could also squeak into the playoffs in a three-way tiebreaker with FCD and either D.C. or New England. TFC would also win any two-way tiebreaker with D.C. or New England because it holds the season series edge over both United and the Revs. The basic scenario: if TFC wins in New York, it wants as many of its 39-point counterparts to win (or lose) as possible (and Colorado to lose or draw) so it doesn’t have to face and lose a head-to-head tiebreaker with FC Dallas.
3. Real Salt Lake is in great position if the line rests at 40 points
It will take an RSL victory over Colorado and a healthy dose of fortune pertaining to the results of the four teams on 39 points entering the weekend, but the Claret-and-Cobalt is in great shape if a spate of draws occurs. With a two-goal win over Colorado on Saturday night, RSL would hold the edge in every two-way tiebreaker, three- and four-way tiebreakers involving every team except Toronto FC, the five-way tiebreaker and the six-way tiebreaker. Moral of the story for RSL fans: root for everyone on 39 points to lose, but especially root for TFC not to draw.
4. Colorado will almost certainly need to beat Real Salt Lake to make the playoffs.
This follows hand-in-hand with RSL’s strength on the tiebreakers. The Rapids can clinch the seventh seed with a victory and crush the dreams of a couple of those teams resting on 39 points in the process, but they face almost certain elimination with a draw or loss. A draw would leave Colorado on 41 points and out of the playoffs if two of the four teams on 39 points muster a victory. A loss would leave the Rapids on 40 points and tied with RSL, which would earn the head-to-head tie-breaker if it won by two or more goals. There likely aren’t going to be two spots (or even one) available at 40 points, so the Rapids would need to keep RSL to a one-goal win to earn the tiebreaker on Total Goals and pray no other team joins them on 40 points. Winning the game at Rio Tinto Stadium would be a lot simpler, but that won’t be any small feat either.
5. New England should hope for some help tomorrow and Saturday night before its must-win game in Columbus on Sunday.
These are the tiebreakers New England has in its favor as the final weekend approaches: a head-to-head battle against D.C. United and a three-way deadlock with D.C. and FC Dallas. New England really needs a Chicago win or draw, a Colorado draw or loss and a Toronto FC loss or draw to pave the way to the postseason. A Colorado victory would make life particularly difficult on the Revs because they need as many wild card spots available as possible and a Rapids victory would leave just one open berth. The situation worsens if the Revs stumble to a tie. The tiebreakers basically create no viable way for the Revs to advance with a draw unless Colorado wins and everyone on 39 points (or everyone but D.C. and United would have to draw in Kansas City) loses, so it’s win or go home for the Revs unless something really, really freaky happens. One small factor in the Revs’ favor: they’ll know exactly what result they’ll need to book a playoff spot before heading onto the field at Crew Stadium early Sunday evening.
Kyle McCarthy writes the Monday MLS Breakdown and frequently writes opinion pieces during the week for Goal.com. He also covers the New England Revolution for the Boston Herald and MLSnet.com. Contact him with your questions or comments at kyle.mccarthy@goal.com and follow him on Twitter by clicking here.
In MLS, seven teams still in race for three playoff spaces
By Beau Dure, USA TODAY
If Major League Soccer were NASCAR, cars would be lining up four- or five-wide in the final turn. The reality is a little less dangerous but no less intense. Going into the final weekend of play, seven teams are battling for three remaining playoff slots. All eight games will affect the playoff race or first place in the Western Conference.
The Chicago Fire are in the best shape of the seven-team logjam, with 42 points and a home game Thursday against Chivas USA (8 p.m. ET, ESPN2). But the Fire haven’t won a game since Aug. 23, going 0-2-4 and failing to sew up a playoff berth that should’ve been a certainty. The longest shot would seem to be Real Salt Lake (37 points). But the Utah club is the only other team in the contending pack to have a home game, and it can catch another contender, the Colorado Rapids (40 points), with a victory Saturday. The four remaining contenders —Toronto FC, New England Revolution, D.C. United and FC Dallas — are tied at 39 points. “We can still finish second in the conference,” D.C. United coach Tom Soehn said after his club halted a three-game losing streak by beating the first-place Columbus Crew on Saturday. “That’s how crazy things are.”
The top two teams in each conference make the playoffs. The remaining four spots go to wild-card teams. Four West teams — the Los Angeles Galaxy, Houston Dynamo, Chivas USA and expansion Seattle Sounders— have clinched playoff spots. Three MLS teams also are active in the CONCACAF Champions League, and all three entered the week needing positive results to reach the quarterfinals that start in early spring. Columbus, which has clinched first place in the MLS East and rested several players Saturday at D.C. United, tied the Puerto Rico Islanders 1-1 Tuesday night to clinch a CONCACAF quarterfinal berth. One MLS prize remains for the Crew: the Supporters’ Shield, given to the team with the top record in the regular season. “We won the East, and that’s very important because we have home-field advantage,” Crew coach Robert Warzycha said. “If we win the Supporters’ Shield, it’s going to be great.”
Houston has a tougher situation, needing a win and help tonight to advance in CONCACAF while also battling for first place and home field in the MLS West. D.C. United tied Mexican club Toluca 1-1 in CONCACAF play Tuesday night and will advance if CD Marathon (Honduras) loses or ties its game Thursday vs. Jabloteh (Puerto Rico).
In MLS play, D.C. United must bounce back Saturday against the Kansas City Wizards, who were eliminated last week. D.C. United, at least, is coming into the season finale after an MLS win. So are Toronto and Dallas, the league’s hottest team. All but counted out of the playoff race in midseason, particularly after losing national team forward Kenny Cooper to German club 1860 Munich, Dallas has won four in a row and five of six to climb into the tie at 39 points. The first tiebreaker is head-to-head won-lost record (translated to points per game if the number of games is uneven among a group of three or more). The second is goal difference (goals scored minus goals allowed). The game with the greatest potential to muddy the waters is Colorado at Salt Lake. If Salt Lake beats the Rapids 1-0, the teams would split the season series 1-1-1. The goal difference for each team would be plus-6. MLS would then apply the third tiebreaker, goals scored, and Colorado (42) would edge Salt Lake (41) — assuming no other teams are tied with them.
Playoffs made simple??
Well figuring out the playoff scenarios is tough and it is clear that a lot of people have looked at all the options, but I only care about what it will take for RSL to make the playoffs so I am going to use a bit of the work done by the RSL front office and a little of my own research to hopefully paint a simple picture for you.
So here it is, if RSL wins:
RSL Qualifies as MLS #7 seed (East #3) with:
- TOR tie + DC tie + DAL tie + NE tie/loss
- TOR loss + DC tie + DAL tie + NE tie/loss
- TOR loss + DC tie + DAL loss + NE tie/loss
- TOR loss + DC loss + DAL tie + NE tie/loss
- TOR loss + DC loss + DAL loss + NE tie
- TOR loss + DC loss + DAL loss + NE loss (needs to defeat COL by 2+ goals)
RSL qualifies as MLS #8 seed (East #4) with:
- TOR win + DC tie + DAL tie + NE tie/loss
- TOR win + DC tie + DAL loss + NE tie/loss
- TOR win + DC loss + DAL tie + NE tie/loss
- TOR win + DC loss + DAL loss + NE tie
- TOR win + DC loss + DAL loss + NE loss (needs to defeat COL by 2+ goals)
or
- TOR tie + DC tie + DAL tie + NE win
- TOR tie + DC tie + DAL loss + NE tie/loss
- TOR tie + DC loss + DAL loss + NE tie
- TOR tie + DC loss + DAL loss + NE loss (needs to defeat COL by 2+ goals)
- TOR loss + DC win + DAL tie + NE tie/loss
- TOR loss + DC win + DAL loss + NE tie
- TOR loss + DC win + DAL loss + NE loss (needs to defeat COL by 2+ goals)
- TOR loss + DC tie + DAL win + NE tie/loss
- TOR loss + DC tie + DAL tie or loss + NE win
- TOR loss + DC loss + DAL win + NE tie
- TOR loss + DC loss + DAL win + NE loss (needs to defeat COL by 2+ goals)
- TOR loss + DC loss + DAL tie + NE win
- TOR loss + DC loss + DAL loss + NE win (needs to defeat COL by 2+ goals)
- TOR loss + DC loss + DAL loss + NE loss
So all of that is fine but that requires a lot of help from the teams currently on 39 points (Toronto, New England, DC United, and FC Dallas), we need no more than one of those teams to win, but any of them getting a tie is OK. Far stretch? Consider that all those teams are on the road for their final match, so has there been a weekend when two of those teams have gotten road wins? Yes, in fact in week 1 of MLS action New England beat San Jose 1-0, and Toronto beat KC 3-2, but that was the only time that more than one of the four got a road win on the same weekend as the others. That my friends is a very good thing for RSL, another good thing is that none of the 4 teams have won more than 3 matches on the road, Toronto is 2-7-5 with 17 goals scored and 27 allowed, New England is 3-6-5 with 10 goals scored and 21 allowed, DC United is 2-5-7 with 22 scored and 28 allowed, and finally FC Dallas who is 3-9-2 with 21 scored and 26 allowed.
This all bodes very well for RSL if they can handle their business at home and beat Colorado by at least 2 goals, and if we can get a 3 goals win then we will also retain the Rocky Mountain Cup (I would gladly trade the RMC for a playoff spot and a 2 goal win). That is as simple as I can describe it, one thing is sure that RSL has only lost two MLS matches ever at Rio Tinto and if the fans can show up in numbers and pour their hearts out from the stands, I believe that the team will respond. I have heard that when RSL wins that after the match they will put the FC Dallas at Seattle Sounders FC match up on the big board, the Toronto and DC United matches will be over by then and we should know a whole lot more about our plans for the playoffs after that.
OK that is it for now.
OFF MY SOAPBOX
pray, win, and pray some more