Real Salt Lake vs. Toronto FC (match preview)
Well RSL came into this week with a chance to jump not only back into the active playoff race, but by Sunday evening could be back in a playoff spot. Wednesday night they kept the drama high and waited until just 10 minutes left in the match to score the game winner and added a safety goal (the importance of that extra goal is huge) in the 90th minute to secure all 3 points against New York. Oh I know everyone was so focused on how bad New York is this year but they did have a better record over their last 6 than RSL and you know what else their 2-2-2 record heading into the midweek match is better than TFC’s record over their last 6 (1-2-3). That does include last weeks matchup against San Jose in which they were able to secure only a single point at home against a team already eliminated from the playoffs, a side they had beat in San Jose 3-1 just weeks earlier. So with RSL fighting for a playoff spot and being just a single point out of a slot, and TFC being two back of that final slot this will likely be one of the premier matchups of the weekend for all MLS fans, and being an early match (4pm Eastern, 2pm local) every team will know the result before starting their matches. So let’s take a quick look at the other matches and my predictions:
Chicago 2 at New England 1 (best result for RSL is a Chicago win- Chicago clinches a spot with a win)
Columbus 2 at DC United 2 (best result for RSL is Crew win, but a draw helps RSL as well)
Seattle 1 at Kansas City 1 (best result for RSL is a Wizard’s win)
Colorado 2 at FC Dallas 3 (best result for RSL is a draw, but reality is that FC Dallas is playing really well and have to win to keep their very slim hopes alive)
San Jose 1 at Chivas 3 (with Chivas in and San Jose out, this one has no impact on RSL)
LA Galaxy 1 at Houston 1 (both teams in so no impact on RSL)
So that would leave the standings looking like this:
Clinched
Columbus – 50 pts
Chivas USA – 47 pts
Houston - 45 pts
LA Galaxy – 45 pts
Chicago – 44 pts
Fighting for final 2 spots
Seattle – 42 pts - +7 GD
Colorado - 40 pts +7 GD
FC Dallas – 39 pts +4 GD
New England – 38 pts -6 GD
So that leaves us with the matter at hand, can RSL get road win number 3? The short history between these teams suggest a very close match as each side holds two wins over the other and one draw. In Toronto the two sides have a 0-0 draw and a 1-0 Toronto win, but earlier this year RSL was able to handle the Red’s at Rio Tinto 3-0 in a match that saw RSL dominate with 14 shots to TFC’s 7 with an 8-2 edge in shots on goal. The second half saw TFC get frustrated and start committing some hard fouls, something RSL is unlikely to have forgotten since they had a match like that just last week.
For RSL they have both Fabi and Robbie Russell listed as probable, but with a midweek match and this one on turf and cold conditions (8 degrees Celsius- 46 degrees) as the high for the day, you could see a number of players getting limited action. TFC is also very healthy with just Carl Robinson listed as out, Marvell Wynne listed as questionable, and Serioux and Vitti listed as probable. Both teams have a number of players in yellow card peril, with Russell, Mathis, Johnson, and Borchers for RSL, while TFC has Barrett, De Rosario, and Garcia all one card away from missing the last match of the regular season.
The projected lineups from the match guide are:
I would love to see RSL do like they did on the road at KC and change up the lineup to throw TFC off guard, maybe start Andy for Javi (I don’t think he can go 100% for a full 90 and still be productive) and I would love to see us bring in Rachid for Clint (Rachid looked great at providing balls into the area during the Chivas match and could provide an element that TFC isn’t expecting, but with RSL taking the same 18 players to Toronto as they played on Wednesday against New York this won’t happen. The eligible players will be:
Nick Rimando, Chris Wingert, Nat Borchers, Jamison Olave, Tony Beltran, Clint Mathis (Andy Williams 63), Kyle Beckerman, Javier Morales (Ned Grabavoy 82), Will Johnson, Yura Movsisyan (Robbie Findley 69), Fabian Espindola. Substitutes Not Used: Pablo Campos, Nelson Gonzalez, Robbie Russell, Chris Seitz.
I do think if Fabi is slightly injured I would hold off on playing him on the turf and in what could be the coldest match of the year for RSL. It will be really interesting to see how the battle in the midfield shapes up as Johnson will likely spend a lot of time matching up against his fellow Canadian national teammate DeRo, as well as the matchup between Kyle and TFC’s designated player Julian de Guzman (who hasn’t impressed me in his first 3 matches). We know in the last match that TFC couldn’t deal with the RSL forwards, mostly as an issue of speed and with Wynne not in the projected lineup they will have to rely on some guys we know can’t match speed with Yura and Robbie. Brennan is a smart defender but slow, Nick Garcia is the dirtiest player in MLS and will take as many cheap shots as he can but can’t come close to keeping up with our guys, the same is true for Serioux who has committed 38 fouls this year and is just out of the list of the top 10 offenders. Only Nana Attakora is quick enough to keep up with Yura and Robbie but I doubt he can handle both of them, quality service to attacking strikers could be the key for RSL.
I am tore on how I would play this one, TFC is desperate and likely to throw everything at RSL because anything less than a win and their playoff hopes are dead (Out with a loss, and just a 8% chance if it ends in a draw), so do we play to defend against their attacks and look for counters (a loss would drop RSL to a 17% shot, but a draw would actually boost us to a 40.9% chance, and a win puts us over a 70% shot at the playoffs) or do we attack from the start and match aggression with aggression? I think a lot depends on the fitness of Olave who has struggled with knee problems most of the year and playing on the turf could risk his ability to play against Colorado, but Robbie Russell has been iffy in the backline in recent matches (great in some, average in others, and poor in a couple).
It is clear that we have to play for the win, but can we count on last minute heroics like last year knowing that TFC has allowed 15 goals in the last 15 minutes of matches? Of the 41 goals that TFC have allowed 23 have been scored in the second half, while RSL has scored 29 of their 40 in the second half. Toronto is a second half team as well with 21 of their 26 coming in the second half, but they have only scored twice this year after the 75th minute, RSL has a league leading 17 goals in the final quarter of an hour.
Scoring early could be the key to this one, RSL is 8-0-3 when scoring first, while TFC is 8-0-5, RSL has come from behind 4 times to get results (2 wins, 2 draws), TFC have also come back 4 times but only once to get the full 3 points. Neither team has lost a match when they have the lead at halftime.
Many fans have been upset that RSL has just 4 wins since the All Star Break, but for TFC the second half of the season has been much crueler as they have only two wins since the break. It would be easy to predict a draw but I think the last matches for these two teams tell a lot about what is going to happen tomorrow. RSL failed to convert their first half chances against New York, but they continued to fight and attack and with fresh legs they took advantage late and got the win, for TFC they got a first half lead and spent much of the second half looking like a team that was desperate to protect that lead and in the end they allowed a stoppage time goal to give up the win and settle for a draw. De Rosario’s actions in the 95th minute told the story of a very frustrated team that had just lost their shot at the post season, and that is their leader on the pitch. They will come out fighting, they are too good to lay down, but expect them to get frustrated at the first sign of trouble and don’t be surprised by an early red card or PK call as they get desperate, I think RSL takes a first half lead and TFC simply fall apart in the second half, RSL wins 3-1.
If I am right then:
So that would leave the standings looking like this:
Clinched
Columbus – 50 pts
Chivas USA – 47 pts
Houston - 45 pts
LA Galaxy – 45 pts
Chicago – 44 pts
Fighting for final 2 spots
Seattle – 42 pts – (+7 GD)
Colorado - 40 pts (+7 GD)
Real Salt Lake – 40 pts (+8 GD)
FC Dallas – 39 pts (+4 GD)
New England – 38 pts (-6 GD)
DC United – 37 pts (-2 GD)
And folks that sets up for a hell of a final regular season match as Colorado holds the tiebreaker edge (1-0-1) over RSL this year, but it could also mean that 6 of the 8 teams in the playoffs could come from the West this year.
OFF MY SOAPBOX
Two wins and we are in, why back in when you can charge in and take control
This entry was posted on October 16, 2009 at 9:31 pm and is filed under The soapbox. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response or trackback from your own site.
October 17, 2009 at 6:11 pm
Another brilliant road performance by RSL. Nice work Kreis. I hope to any supreme being that I never have to see your face again.
October 17, 2009 at 6:43 pm
Well, this pretty much does it for the RSL season. So lets talk seriously about a coaching change, without rabid animosity.
I truly believe we need a head coaching change. I don’t hate Jason, I just don’t think he has come any where close to getting the full potential out of his players.
“Who would we get to replace him?”
I have heard this reply every time I’ve seen a coaching change brought up. Well, its not really my responsibility as a disappointed fan to suggest potential replacements. USL, NCAA, 2nd or 3rd tier european coaches are all options. Besides, since when is not having the solution to a problem justification for pretending a problem doesn’t exist?
I admire Jason for trying so hard to make this coaching thing work. I honestly believe that he has made all the effort possible to learn the craft. He simply isn’t capable at this time to continue coaching in the MLS. If its something he wants, I think he should continue to work towards becoming a good coach at a lower level.
For now though, my emotions as a fan are tired of being the guinea pig to the failed Kreis experiment.
October 17, 2009 at 8:35 pm
I feel the same way to be honest (regardless of my post game anger). Those who are calling the shots need to find the best coach, not us. We do what we can by supporting the team. But it gets hard to support the team when the same problems occur season after season. I mean, we still support them and hope for the best, but it is hard to really expect a different outcome. I am not jumping off of the bandwagon by any stretch. Just disappointed and wishing for better success for a team that really does have some excellent talent on the field (not so much in the coaching department it appears though).
The decision making process is what has been killing the team in a lot of ways. Again, we are not coaches, just fans. But Mathis has offered next to nothing for quite some time. Why he starts over Andy Williams is beyond me. Sure Andy provides a spark when entering late, but if he comes in early and puts us up early, then Clint is a good sub to play some d and control the ball AFTER we get a couple of goals. I can’t argue with how Robbie is used. It makes sense. It is sad to see Yura go for me, as he has been a hard worker in my view. Morales has not done much this year, neither has Wingert and both are making big bucks for this league.
The one guy who really seemed to want it today more than anybody was Will Johnson. He was all over the field and working hard. I’d like to see Will get a shot at forward sometimes. He has a nice first touch and controls the ball effectively and maybe he could help put a ball or two in back of the net on occasion. Heck, at this point I’d put Olave at forward or maybe even Seitz.
I think it’s a foregone conclusion that any sane owner would sack Jason tonight and give Fraser a chance to coach a game and see how it goes. But I doubt it will happen, because at this point I am not really trusting of Checketts’ judgment at all for a myriad of reasons (some have been in the news, some have not).
Let’s hope for a DP of some quality (we all know the Ruud talk is just to get our hopes up to ultimately dash them and blame them on circumstances beyond the team’s control). This team has so much talent. I am afraid Robbie walks soon and Andy maybe retires and we are stuck with the likes of Cleetus and Kreis for another year or two. I wouldn’t be suprirsed if Olave got bought out and left for another country either. His game doesn’t seem suited to the MLS for a lot of reasons, and I get the feeling that there are teams in Europe, Mexico, or elsewhere that would covet his speed, athleticism, and pure athletic ability.
Let’s all hope for the best. I’d like a victory over Colorado next week and to end the season on that good note. However, if a loss guaranteed a change in direction for the franchise then sadly I’d probably end up hoping for such a result. That damages my fan credentials certainly, but I want a winner in Utah and I feel we deserve it. Seattle is there in their first year. It is time for RSL to step up and become a leader in this league.
October 18, 2009 at 10:36 am
I love that you mentioned playing Seitz at forward. That was my call for our final sub against New York. We need to do whatever it takes to keep Seitz… That includes maybe even bumping Rimando to backup at keep. The goalie dilemma is going to kill me though, I really like them both.
The MLS isn’t good enough for a guy like Olave. His physicality would be great in Mexico, but I think he is enough of a total package to play in a better league.
I hate to even think of the mass turn-over of players we expect in the next 6 months.
This isn’t like most Pro-Sports in America, where you can coach consistently average teams, and hold onto your job. I don’t want RSL to be the Jazz of my adult life. I need some silverware to go with my fanship.
If Sven Erikson will coach at Notts County… there has got to be a coach (not a retired player) that will move to beautiful SLC and lead our Real.
October 18, 2009 at 6:05 pm
I hate to think of mass turnover that does NOT include Kreis. That is my worse fear. The ownership and management will blame the players and let the coach keep his job. That would put a nail in the coffin for the organization for many casual fans. They want to see a winner, and Kreis is NOT a winner as a coach. His best season was what, 10-10-10? Unacceptable.
October 19, 2009 at 12:48 am
Interesting, you guys fail to see that a majority of the RSL offensive chances against TFC came while Clint (not Andy was on the pitch), MLS isn’t good enough for Olave, really it was souly his mistake that cost the match against TFC, it was a clear ball to clear with his left foot but he tries for some reason to use his right foot despite the ball being on his left side. I do think Olave is great and the shame of his getting carded for mystery fouls is part of the largest issue in MLS, piss poor officials. To think that another team will scoop up his new contract is something we will have to see but most teams don’t want a player who has been issued so many straight red cards or reds off double yellows.
Will actually has said he wants to play a more defensive role both with RSL and with the Canadian national team, but I do agree I would love to see him back on the wing in a more creative role.
I will be honest I am ready for Javi to move on, he is a quality player but too often he has passed up easy passes to others in an attempt to get the ball to Fabi. Fabi still tends to look for Javi first but has become a good creative player, he is more effective when Javi is out of the match.
Seattle is there because they brought in an existing franchise and teamed it with a NFL franchise and had unlimited budget which allowed them to secure a DP, and “loans” of several players they couldn’t have otherwise signed under MLS rules. RSL didn’t have a USL team that they could use as a core to build around, they don’t have a billionare owner with an unlimited budget. To compare the two simply isn’t a fair comparison.
I do think there is plenty of blame to go around but if you can honestly say that you think the loss in Toronto falls on the coach, well we will disagree on that one. I fault players who seem to think that goals will just come in the final 15 minutes, and those who failed to covert goals in the first half.
I do think you will see a number of shakeups to the roster for next season. More on that later.