October 14, 2009 by f4denz.

OK, for the past few months there has been match after match that have been called the most important match of the season, and each time the RSL appears to be on the verge of eliminating themselves from the playoffs, they seem to find help from someone else. Well without a win tonight, the odds of RSL making the playoffs drop so far off the chart that there will be no recovery. Tonight, RSL will need to do something they never have done, tonight they will need to get a measure of revenge for last years ,both the opening draw against, and the Western Conference Final loss to, the New York Red Bulls.

If you look at the last 3 matches RSL has played you have to wonder which team will show up after the 18 day MLS layoff? Will it be the scrappy, high energy team that earned a draw against the dirty goats last week? Will it be the never say die, go until you drop team that almost came from behind against Houston? Or will it be the team that looked disinterested, confused, and slow against FC Dallas? When facing a team that has nothing left to play for, at least as far as team accolades, anything can happen. If you don’t believe me just ask Toronto that couldn’t finish off San Jose, or Houston who failed to get all 3 points when facing KC a couple weeks ago.

For RSL they are as close to full staffed as they have been all year, with only Ned Grabavoy listed as questionable with the foot contusion suffered last week. New York is not so lucky as Bouna Coundoul out on national team duty, Goldthwaite and Wolyniec out and Rojas and Juan Pablo listed as Questionable. If you were to simply look at the numbers, you would assume a huge RSL win in this match as New York is winless on the road (0-12-2) and have scored only 3 goals in 14 matches while allowing 25. RSL on the other hand has only a single loss at home (7-1-5) with 29 goals for and only 11 against, but nothing is ever as simple as it looks. Did you know that New York has a better record than RSL over their last 6 matches (2-2-2), while RSL is 2-3-1? With the struggles in the last two league matches, RSL has allowed 8 goals in the first 15 minutes of matches; New York is only one behind with 9 in the first 15 minutes. For RSL a quick start will be the key, New York has allowed 27 goals in the first half of matches and just 18 in the second half. RSL has depended on scoring in the second half as 27 of their 38 goals scored have come in the second half, New York is even with 11 scored in both the first and second halves of matches.

The projected lineups from the match guide are:

I have to say that I would be very surprised if there are not at least 2-3 changes to the RSL lineup, but for me this really is a matter of the team not only has to win but they really need to work to build their goal differential back up. It is very possible that the final playoff spots could very well be determined by that tiebreaker, for me I would love to see RSL get a measure of revenge for the 8/26/06 6-0 thrashing that New York laid on RSL. We have shown that we can score goals in a bunch and tonight we have the perfect opportunity to do so as Danny Cepero has a 1.71 goals against average is in front of a defense that has gotten better as the year has gone on, in fact they have 1 goal or less in their last 5 matches.

The history of this matchup is one where 6 of the 9 regular season matchups have ended in draws and with the exception of the 6-0 match only once has the margin of victory been more than 1 goal, and that was the controversial match this year in which both New York goals were on questionable plays. A lot of fans have questioned the heart of RSL this year, do they have the passion and desire to play as a team and to win as a team, and there have been plenty of matches were it as looked like there has been no real passion or heart driving RSL’s performance on the pitch. This is a match were the team can not only control their destiny, but can do a whole lot to impress their fans and make a push towards actually earning a post season spot.

I think RSL blows them out tonight 5-2, and uses some momentum to get a result on Saturday.

OFF MY SOAPBOX
3-0-0 and shut the haters up

Posted in The soapbox | 4 Comments »

October 14, 2009 by f4denz.

It was announced by RSL that they will not be showing the US vs. Costa Rica match on the scoreboard before the match tomorrow, and I am not sure if it is the “technical issues” as they announced, estimated low attendance due to weather, the cost of staffing the stadium two hours earlier than normal or something else but I am disappointed by the announcement. I tried to convince the staff to hold the watching party in the “Club” but that comes with its own set of challenges including dealing with Levy, staffing, and explaining to those who own “Club Seats” why common people are in their area before a match.

While I expected more, like make sure you have all the details worked out before you announce something, this situation really reminds me of things the 2006-2007 RSL staff would have done. I think perhaps the more disturbing thing is that “RSL fans” are using this as reason/excuse to not attend the match at all. One has to wonder about the logic of that, so I wish we could see both but the US match is now fairly pointless and the RSL match is the most critical match of the year, use a DVR people.

I think every fan should realize how big this match is and they should show up early, I say get in as soon as the gates open 7pm, bring your flags, signs, and cheering voices and support the team from the moment they take the field to practice until the final whistle. I understand there are some issues on the East side of the stadium and hanging flags and signs over the edge and covering up the branded (Rio Tinto) signage, I had a conversation with Bill Manning on this topic last week and I would suggest hanging your flags and signs from the gates at the end of the stairs if possible. That way you can still support the team without making the branding police of Rio Tinto upset, and getting into an argument with the security people.

Oh the Critics

I love that so many people get so upset when I challenge their constant pessimism and critical postings on blogs and boards about RSL, I have to constant apologize for being a fan and actually taking some time to think about the issues and react in as logical as a manner as possible. I also think being critical is part of being a fan, but I question those who tossed in the towel months ago, despite the fact that RSL is still in the thick of the hunt for the final couple playoff spots. Understand that only 4 of the 8 playoff spots have been secured with almost every team having just 2 matches left, and RSL has 3 matches (9 potential points) left. A month ago experts and pundits thought it would take 43 or more points to make the playoffs but now it is possible that 40 points might be able to secure a spot, in fact right now 38 points now secures a final spot. I am not going into the math on all the possible options but according to sportsclubstats.com the two most likely outcomes for RSL are ending with 38 points (going 1-1-1) and almost no shot at the playoffs, but the second most likely outcome is RSL ending with 41 points (2-0-1) and a 77% likelihood of making the playoffs.

So there are a few that make good arguments on some of the blogs and big soccer and I wanted to take a couple minutes and deal with a couple points and simply offer my perspective on them.

Last year was nothing exceptional, in fact RSL had just an average year- True, if you look at the 10-10-10 record it would seem average but getting a result in 20 of 30 matches seems a little above average to me. There were 6 teams that ended with more points than RSL in 2008, 7 with fewer, again just a little above average. RSL ended with a +1 goal differential, one of 5 teams to do so. For me that fact that RSL ended in the Western Conference finals, the final 4 of the MLS season points to a better than average year and when compared to the years in RSL’s past it was much better than average. In 2005 and 2006 when there were 32 matches in the MLS season RSL averaged 29.5 points (.92 points per match). In 2007 RSL had 27 points (.90 points per match) and last year they ended with 40 points (1.33 per match average) so for RSL it was a far better than average year. Right now RSL has 1.26 points per match, better than most years but not good enough.

Tired of Jason and think we need a change (with many various reasons and logics)- So the owner took a chance on promoting a player to head coach, a move that many can question, but one has to believe that there was a reason. I think Jason is a young guy who is learning his craft and doing so with a great deal of dedication and passion, I have seen him spend hours watching how other teams train and practice when given a chance, I know that he understands what it takes to be successful in MLS. It is always funny that people want to get rid of him but have so few options in mind to replace him, well realistic options. People who would be willing to coach in MLS, with all its strange rules, someone who is willing to coach for low wages (compare to international coaches). Yup we can convince the guy who got millions for coaching the German national team to come to Salt Lake. I think before we get all crazy with changes, we ought to look at Toronto, they have made change after change in their brief history, they brought in some fairly impressive names but it hasn’t worked out for them. Before we think the player to coach thing can’t work, look at Chivas, by no means a perfect example but Preki had just a single year as an Assistant Coach.

I have said that I thought if RSL missed the playoffs that Jason should probably step down, I have started to rethink that and I am not sure how I feel about it right now. I don’t have access to all the information that needs to be considered in making that type of decision and to be honest neither does any fan. I can only go based on what I do know, Jason was given a 3 year extension late last year and I do not believe there is any chance that he will be let go this year.

Issues with players –So I find it funny that when I question the performance of some players everyone is quick to defend them, but then so many people jump on other players, but I think this is typical of fans who often have their favorites. I have posted my opinions on players in detail 3 times this year the most recent was just over a month ago (http://blog.roguecavaliers.com/2009/09/12/3rd-quarter-rsl-report-card/ ), I tend to believe that many of the issues this year on the pitch have more to do with the players than with the coaching staff. One only has to look at the recent matches to see what I am talking about, in both the Houston and FC Dallas matches early goals were given up, but who is to blame? In the Houston match we saw a goal off a corner kick and a set piece, I believe it was the first goal from a corner that RSL has given up this year, and only the second or third from a set piece. So someone missed an assignment because the strategy/formation seems sound if we have given up so few goals on those types of plays. The final goal in the Houston match was simply due to fatigue, playing 50 plus minutes a man down on a hot, humid Houston night has got to be tough and the RSL defense cracked, that one I simply blame on the events of the night. How about the FC Dallas match, well it would be easy to blame Wingert for missing the header but what about the failed clearance before the ball got to him, and they went up one. The second goal, was a combination of Wingert being too far forward and Russell being in the wrong place at the wrong time (would it have happened with Olave in the lineup?), again I blame that on the players. I think a lot of RSL players have struggled with the variations of the 4-5-1. 4-4-2, and 4-3-3 this year, each of them have seen players excel. The 4-4-2 was huge for Mathis and Findley early in the year, but Javi and the rest of the midfield seemed to struggle. The 4-3-3 really seemed to help Javi, Fabi, and Yura, but seems to have hurt Mathis and Johnson. I know Jason prefers to play the more aggressive 4-3-3 or 4-5-1 with the outside players pushed up, but I wonder if we really have the players to make that work, it is based on possession and attacks up the sides of the pitch but it seems like many teams have caught on to it and collapsed the passing lanes and caused real issue for RSL at times.

Is there anyone who really believes that Olave has deserved all three red cards? I think the phantom foul in Colorado was bad, but the call in Houston was simply criminal and because of his size Jamison often gets blamed for things he hasn’t done as officials don’t understand that he is faster than they think and often gets the ball before the player but they only see a big player and call the foul. Is it a discipline problem? What about the events during the Chivas match last week? It was Olave sticking up for a fellow player and being the victim but again an official assumes that the big guy must be at blame and out he goes, the behavior in the tunnel is still a question as I wasn’t there and don’t know the details.

RSL is unfair- So I have heard a bunch of stuff about the RSL front office and people not understanding that there were only 18 tickets this year vs. 20 next year. It is funny how people assumed that the team was cheating them, but had no proof and unlike the American justice system so they assumed the team was wrong. Well here is your proof from the RSL relocation guide used last year:

Listen I think the RSL front office is much better than in years past but, they also have made a number of mistakes and bad moves. Heck I have called them on a number of them, but instead of just complaining about things I have taken the approach of trying to work with them to come up with solutions and to make the situation better. Things like better communication (the upcoming town hall meetings), posting of “Client Experience” emails on their facebook site (since Comcast and other providers have blocked them as junk mail), trying to resolve the issues with light rig and stage so that people don’t end up with restricted views next year, and a number of other things. It isn’t because I am special, but because I want to see the organization grow and do well, and muttering and complaining doesn’t solve anything. So yes RSL was right to charge for the Chivas match, and they did the right thing by offering their season ticket holders huge discounts on their seats. Yes RSL is doing the right thing by dropping the 2010 season ticket prices for over 90% of the seats in the stadium. Yes there is still a lot of room for improvement, but if you are really paying attention and want to have your voice heard then look no further than today’s announcement of the upcoming Town Hall Meetings.

Issues with me – I have never done this to be everyone’s friend, it started as a way for me to both vent my frustrations and celebrate the success of the team. It has turned into a huge passion for me, I don’t make any money off of this as you notice there are no ads on my blog, I have never asked another site to link to my blog as I haven’t done it to be popular, I do it because I enjoy it and it allows me a way to learn more about the team, the league and the sport. I have never claimed to be an expert on any of those topics. Since my first visit to the construction site of Rio Tinto, I have expanded my passion into learning photography and that has become a huge part of what I do with my blog. It is still a learning process for me and I know that my loyalty to the team and as Aj would say “blind faith” is a bit much for some people, and yet each month more and more people visit the blog. If you have a difference of opinion, I again say email me your thoughts and I will post them. Hell write a blog post, and as long as it isn’t offensive (yes I get to be the judge of that), I will post it. I would love to get more people and opinions represented, after the season I will be moving to a new domain which will let me do a bit more with design and content, if you want to be a part of it let me know and we will see what happens.

I will continue to be supportive of the team and organization. I will continue to try to offer some level of balance from understanding the passion of a fan to knowing how the business end works. I will continue to try to be a voice for the fans, both official supporter groups and regular fans. I will continue to call on all fans of the team to do more in support of their team. I will not apologize for my opinions, if I make a mistake on dates, facts or anything I will post a correction. I will continue to make spelling and grammatical mistakes. I hope you will continue to read, to comment, and to enjoy.

Season Ticket Update for South End Supporters

The following information comes from Michael Schetzel the Director of RSL ticket operations:

Davy sent along your note to me and thank you very much for reaching out on this topic.  Your timing is perfect and I’ll lay out our timeline that perhaps you can help communicate.  You are correct that no South Goal seats are available to renew at this time.  That is why you received just your renewal for the non-south goal seats.  We are having a final meeting this week internally to determine the seats we can sell on a season basis based on the stage configuration.  Once that is finalized, the final map will be produced.  We are then inviting all those that have season seats in the South Goal for a presentation that has just been set for November 3^rd at 6 PM in the Club here at Rio Tinto Stadium.  The date was literally set yesterday and the invitations will be going out shortly.  At that meeting we will explain all of the options for the South Goal in 2010.  This also means that those in the South Goal do not need to worry about the Oct 24^th STH deadline.  Their deadline will be extended and explained at the November 3^rd meeting. 

So to review:

• RSL is meeting this week to finalize South Goal 2010 configuration and plan
• Invitations to a Tuesday, November 3^rd meeting will go out via e-mail/phone/letter  to all South Goal season ticket holders this week or early next week.
• The renewal deadline for the South Goal Supporters will be extended, most likely to November 20^th.

RSL vs. New York Match Preview

I will do my best to get my match preview up by lunch time on Wednesday.

OFF MY SOAPBOX
3-0-0, eliminate the doubters

Posted in The soapbox | 2 Comments »