What did the weekend hold for Real Salt Lake?
October 5, 2009 by f4denz.
Well with no action last weekend, a friendly this week and no action this weekend, there was little RSL could do for itself as far as the playoff race is concerned. That doesn’t mean that their chances weren’t impacted by the weekend’s activities, and for a while I have pointed out that our real competition wasn’t with LA, Houston, Columbus or Chicago, heck I didn’t even think it was against Chivas and to a lesser extent Colorado. I have thought the battle was with Toronto, DC United, New England and Seattle, and at the start of the weekends action RSL found themselves 3 points out of the final playoff spot, but it could have gotten much worse and in a couple cases it did.
Toronto was off, so they sit still one point ahead of RSL, DC United had a chance to move into a playoff spot but dropped a 2-0 result at home to Chivas to stay 2 points ahead of RSL and 2 points out of a playoff spot with 2 matches remaining. New England had two matches last week, a chance to turn matches in hand into points but Wednesday they dropped all 3 possible points at Dallas and despite taking an early lead against Colorado on Saturday, they say a very, very questionable call give the Rapids a PK attempt and like in the past 3 of 4 matches they converted to earn a draw. New England came out still sitting in the final playoff spot, but their final 3 matches are the toughest of any team trying to make the playoffs, as they face Columbus and Chicago at home and end the season in Columbus, it is possible that they could end their season with the same number of points they currently have but more likely they get 4 more points and end with the dreaded 42. Seattle on the other hand was looking at mission impossible this weekend as they faced the only undefeated home team in MLS, the Columbus Crew and despite playing evenly for most of the match, the Crew got some horrible calls at home and dropped their first match at Crew Stadium, meaning no team will be undefeated at home this year. Seattle moved up the table to try to secure their postseason spot, and with 41 points and two matches remaining they could sew it up with a road win at Kansas City as 44 points would almost lock up a spot, if they falter there they will end their season at home against the surging FC Dallas. So if the playoffs started today, here is what it looks like:
For RSL like is interesting as Colorado has two matches left and both are on the road, like RSL they are off this weekend but on the 17th they face off against FC Dallas, who as we know are a team bent on beating everyone in their path and praying for a lot of help to have any shot at the playoffs, but how huge could this make the final match of the year as Colorado comes to Rio Tinto. Last year it came down to a stoppage time goal between the two sides and this year could be a repeat, but only if RSL can handle their business starting with New York.
So let’s play the likely scenarios out:
Seattle, gets a draw at KC, and given their recent scoring drought (5 in their last 6, and just 2 in their last 5 at home) a draw with FC Dallas to end with 43 points
Chivas, with 4 matches remaining including home matches against (San Jose, Kansas City, and Houston) 6 points and a road match against Chicago (0 points), they should end the year with 47 points
Colorado, a heartbreaking loss at FCD (I think them getting PK’s in 4 of 5 matches would be too much of a fix), they come into the 24th match at Rio Tinto with 40 points
New England, has won 7 of 13 at home, and while Columbus are not road warriors, they do have results in 9 of 13 on the road so a draw is a fair prediction, Chicago has won 6 of 14 on the road and has results in 11 of 14, lets say another draw and Columbus will be battling for the supporters shield and wanting momentum going into the playoffs, so New England ends with just 40 points
DC United, get to face the Crew, 0 points for them, and finish at KC where they pick up a win as they end their season with 39 points
Toronto FC, has the easiest remaining schedule (San Jose and RSL at home) 4 points, and New York on the road in their final match 3 points to end with 42 points.
FC Dallas, should be able to get a win at San Jose on Wednesday, a home win over Colorado, and end the season with a draw at Seattle for 40 points.
So if I am close to right it should look like this for the wildcard spots:
Chivas – 47 points
Seattle – 43 points
TFC – 42 points
Colorado – 40 points
New England – 40 points
FC Dallas – 40 points
So what does that mean for RSL? Well a win against New York is a must to get to 37 points and they need a match like they had against Columbus or New England at home (run up the score), a hopeful draw against TFC to get to 38 points and that means it could all come down to that final match and a win would put them at 41 points and if all other things go accordingly the 4th and final spot, but what if they drop all 3 points at Toronto? Well a win against New York and Colorado would let them end in what could likely be a 4 way tie for the final spot at 40 points, so it would come down to tiebreakers:
TEAM-STANDINGS TIE-BREAKING PROCEDURES
The team awarded the highest position in the MLS standings will be the team with the greatest number of points (3 points for a win, 1 point for a tie, 0 points for a loss). In the event that two teams finish the regular season with an equal number of points, the following system will be used to break the tie:
- The highest position shall be awarded to the team with the better win/loss record in current regular season games against all other teams equal in points. (head-to-head competition)
- If the teams are still equal in the standings, the highest position shall be awarded to the team with the greater goal difference against all other teams during the regular season. (goal differential)
- If the teams are still equal in the standings, the highest position shall be awarded to the team scoring the greatest number of total goals against all other teams during the regular season. (total goals)
- If the teams are still equal in the standings, the procedures described in this section shall be applied only to games played on the road by each team against all other teams during the regular season. (road 1-3)
- If the teams are still equal in the standings, the procedures described in this section shall be applied only to games played at home by each team against all other teams during the regular season. (home 1-3)
- If the teams are still equal in the standings, the highest position shall be awarded to the team with the fewest team disciplinary points in the League Fair Play table during the regular season.
- If the teams are still equal in the standings, the highest position in the standings shall be determined by the toss of a coin.
- The first tiebreaker in a three-way tie is also head-to-head, but it is determined via points-per-game versus the other two teams. If two teams are tied in points-per-game head-to-head, the next tie breaker is goal difference.
NOTE: If two clubs remain tied after another club with the same number of points advances during any step, the tie breaker reverts to step 1 of the two-club format.
For RSL this could be interesting as we have split the season with New England and FC Dallas, and a win against Colorado in the final match would leave us tied with them (1-1-1). For Colorado they have two ties against New England, and their first match against FC Dallas was a draw, and so far they hold the 1-0-1 edge over RSL. For New England, they are even against RSL, Colorado, and FC Dallas. FC Dallas, even against RSL and New England and a draw against Colorado with a match upcoming. So this could very easily come down to total goal differential, for New England they are at a -4, FC Dallas has gotten back to the positive over the last few weeks and are a +2, RSL has dropped goals in recent weeks and are down to a +4 (hence the reason to run the score up against New York), and Colorado is leading with a +8. For the RSL vs. Colorado match, there is also the Rocky Mountain Cup and with Colorado winning the first match 2-0, it would mean RSL would need to win by at least 3 goals to get the RMC, but that could also be enough to close the goal gap between the two sides.
Oh the joy of the final few weeks of MLS action. So for RSL they do get a tune up/keep fit matchup against Chivas (the real thing) on Wednesday night, and while many have complained about another Mexican team, when I consider the other middle of the week, midseason options I think this is a might good choice and the shame is that so many RSL fans are complaining about it being an away match (only because they won’t show up), it should be entertaining and hopefully provide some motivation as the final 3 matches loom large on the horizon. Oh and just so I can say it, if we go 3-0-0 then nothing else matters because it would likely secure our spot as Colorado would end if they beat FC Dallas with 43 points, TFC would end with 41 points, and it would put both us and Colorado into the playoffs with Seattle and Chivas.
OFF MY SOAPBOX
3-0-0 (remove all doubt)