RSL needs a lot of help this weekend
October 3, 2009 by f4denz.
Well with RSL beating BYU 4-1 tonight, bummed I didn’t get to go, and no other MLS action for them until they face off against the Red Bulls on the 14th they will be doing a lot of watching matches this weekend as a bunch of the matches could either keep the dream alive of move it further and further away. I am working on a fan challenge for the last 3 matches, but more on that next week. So here are my predictions for this weekend’s action, along with the best case scenarios for RSL:
Chicago 1 at LA Galaxy 1 (for RSL a Fire win would help their chances slightly but not much)
Seattle 1 at Columbus 3 (a Crew win would give a good 2 point boost to RSL’s playoff hopes)
Chivas 1 at DC United 1 (a Chivas win would be huge for RSL over a 3 point bump)
New England 2 at Colorado 2 (a draw gives a very slight edge to RSL)
New York 1 at San Jose 2 (a Quakes win gives a little help to RSL)
Kansas City 1 at Houston 3 (a Dynamo win gives again a little help to RSL)
If all the matches were to go RSL’s way it could boost them up to about a 28% chance of making the playoffs. Last weekend RSL got a lot of help but failed to help themselves out as they dropped 3 big points to FCD. For RSL the situation is this, go 3-0-0 and end with 43 points and they have a 99.5% chance of making it to the postseason, go 2-0-1 and end with 41 points and it drops to just a 66% chance, go 2-1-0 and end with 40 points and they have just a one in five shot of making it, anything else and well it would take a miracle of miracles for RSL to see anything past the Oct. 24th matchup with Colorado.
How hot is Cunny?
Well RSL got a firsthand lesson on what a motivated Jeff Cunningham can do, but we weren’t the only team to get schooled by the September player of the month. Jeff put in 7 goals and added on 3 assists to help FC Dallas to a 3-1-1 month, one third of their wins came last month as they desperately tried to get back into the playoff picture, and while they don’t have a match this weekend, on Wednesday they will travel to San Jose to try to get somewhere they haven’t been in a long time (only one weeks since week 10) and that is above a 10% chance of making the playoffs, but the reality is that they will likely end up on the outside looking in unless they get a lot of help. The least likely scenario would see them go 3-0-0 and end up with 42 points and a 93% chance of making the playoffs, but a single loss in their final 3 matches and they be done.
OK, it has been a long day so that is it for me.
OFF MY SOAPBOX
3-0-0 take what is yours