RSL @ FC Dallas (match preview)
2-0-2, 3-1-0, 3-0-1 are the scenarios that keep RSL’s playoff hopes alive in one way or another. Some for Real Salt Lake to get help from other teams but the scenario that lets them control their own destiny is 3-0-1, with 10 points from their final 4 matches RSL would finish with 44 points they would have a 98.8% likelihood of making the playoffs according to sportclubstats.com, and there are 3 matchups this weekend that have huge implications on the playoff hopes of teams involved in them and top of that list is RSL vs. FC Dallas. A win by RSL would move them right back into the playoffs (depending on other results) but it would end the mathematical odds for FC Dallas as they would join San Jose and New York with a 0.00 shot at the playoffs. For RSL it would provide them a 26 point swing and put them with a 58% of making it to the post season, but a draw would drop them just below a 30% chance and a loss would be devastating and drop them to just a 17% shot.
Saying their back is against the wall is a bit of a understatement but Real Salt Lake have simply failed to take advantage of opportunities up to this point and now if they want to return to the post season must now step up and prove they are worthy. Most people agree they have the talent but it has been mental lapses, poor decisions, and some questionable officiating that has cost RSL points on the road all year. Now they get to play a match with my favorite worst official Kevin Stott, and while he tends not to give as many cards (yellow or red) or call for as many penalty kicks as others it is often that he calls fouls against one team more than the other that tilts the balance of the match. I am hoping with the attention that US Soccer has started to finally pay to the MLS officials and their limited actions to correct the issues, that Kevin will call a match down the middle and be fair. For RSL no matter how the officials try to impact the match, they must simply play their game.
The FC Dallas roster will be short a number of players as: Josh Lambo, Break Shea, Per Marosevic, and Kyle Davies all are with the US U-20 team in Egypt, they are also without out Anthony Wallace who is listed as out, and could be down another as Blake Wagner is listed as questionable. This means their normal 24 man roster could be down to just 18 bodies which can limit your options for subs on a warm and sunny day in Frisco (high temp should be about 90). For RSL they will be missing Olave after the weak red card last weekend, but other than that everyone should be available for Jason and staff to plan their strategy. The probable lineups from the official match guide look like this:
I would not be surprised if RSL make a change or two before the match starts, in fact I would almost count on it as I have to think we might put either Robbie Findley or Yura Movsisyan into the starting lineup knowing we will be in a high paced and likely high scoring match. A lot of focus has been put on how RSL will deal with Jeff Cunningham, but for me the much larger issue is Dave van den Bergh, fans only need to think back to the first ever match at Rio Tinto to know his impact, or the fact that he was the man who ended the 2008 season for RSL in the Western Conference final. While Jeff is battling to once again win the golden boot, the RSL defense knows he is coming and with Olave out a big burden will be put on Robbie Russell who is finally back to full fitness and has the speed and size to make Jeff’s night a very long one but I would look for Tony Beltran to be paying a lot of attention to Jeff. Tony has done a great job this year of playing against the best offensive players and not only holding his own but shutting them down.
Can RSL control possession? That is the real question of the match, when these teams faced earlier this season the answer in the first half was no, and it showed with FC Dallas taking a 2-0 lead in at halftime. The second half however was a very different story as RSL did something they had never done before, they came back from being down two goals to win a match as they poured in 4 second half goals and walked away with a 4-2 victory. It was a very physical match, with 28 fouls called, 8 cards issued including the sending off of Jason Kreis and Drew Moor, it featured two PK’s one made by RSL’s Robbie Findley and one missed by Cunningham. There were 28 shots, with 14 shots on goal, and 6 goals scored, it was a match that both frustrated and excited the 18,000 plus RSL fans at Rio Tinto, tonight I would expect closer to 8,000 at Pizza Hut park and hopefully they will be going home disappointed.
It will be interesting to see how some of the new faces for FCD perform, Ugo Ihemelu joined them just about a month ago from Colorado, George John the 2009 MLS Super Draft’s 14th pick has found his way into the starting lineup for FC and now has 10 starts under his belt, and Jair Benitez joined the team from Columbia. While Sala isn’t new he has only played in 9 matches this year due to injuries but when you have so many players with so little time playing together it could create opportunities for RSL. In fact only San Jose and New York have given up more goals at home and while they have a +4 goal differential at home the 18 goals allowed should prove that RSL can score against them.
I expect this one will come down the performance of the veterans for RSL, can Javi get back into the lineup and prove to be productive, will Yura be able to get the fans back on his side by providing some more end of the season magic, can Russell step in to the backline and help RSL shut down the offensive minded FC Dallas? Dallas has scored more goals than anyone this year in MLS with 41, but they also have allowed more than everyone (FCD and NY both have allowed 43). RSL had struggled to score on the road but they put in 2 against Houston last weekend, including a short handed goal and showed a ton of heart after going a man down, but heart won’t be enough today as I think it will take 3 goals to get the 3 points. I have to pick RSL to win 3-2 and keep their playoff hopes alive.
Other matches
Seattle 1 – New England 2 – best result for RSL is a draw
LA Galaxy 1 – Columbus 2 – best result for RSL is a Crew win
Toronto 1 – Chicago 3 – best result for RSL is a Fire win
Colorado 0 – Kansas City 0 – best result for RSL is Wizard win
New York 1 – Chivas 2 – best result for RSL is a Red Bull win
San Jose 1 – DC United 1 – best result for RSL is Quakes win
OK that is it for now
OFF MY SOAPBOX
Audentis Fortuna Juvat” (3-0-1 and we are in)
This entry was posted on September 26, 2009 at 2:57 pm and is filed under The soapbox. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response or trackback from your own site.