September 30, 2009 by f4denz.

So when RSL lost 3-0 to FC Dallas on Saturday they did something they had only done once since May 16^th of this year and that is lose a match without scoring a goal. Since the May loss to Kansas City 2-0 at Rio Tinto (the only loss at home this year), the 1-0 loss in Chicago was the only match that RSL lost without scoring a goal a streak of 17 matches.

It also marks the first time in two months that the 2009 point total has been behind the 2008 mark, we currently are sitting on 34 points, in 2008 we had 35 points after 27 matches. A win against New York would put us back in front of last years total, but just matching last years 40 points will probably not be enough to get to the post season. If RSL can do something it hasn’t done since 2006, win more than 2 matches in a row.

So with a 2 plus week break from MLS action, I thought this week we could take a look at some individual numbers. First up, goals, it is easy to look at who has scored how many:
Robbie Findley – 10
Yura Movsisyan – 7
Kyle Beckerman – 3
Jamison Olave – 3
Pablo Campos – 2
Fabian Espindola -2
Clint Mathis – 2
6 with 1 goal

But let’s look at how this all balances out when compared to how many minutes played, and with 2008 season:
Robbie Findley – 10 goals – 1637 minutes played or 1 goal every 163.7 minutes – 2008 totals – 6 goals – 1493 minutes played or 1 goal every 248.8 minutes
Yura Movsisyan – 7 goals – 1575 minutes played or 1 goal every 225 minutes – 2008 totals – 7 goals – 1229 minutes played or 1 goal every 175.6 minutes
Kyle Beckerman – 3 goals – 1948 minutes played or 1 goal every 649.3 minutes – 2008 totals – 3 goals – 2683 minutes played or 1 goal every 894.3 minutes
Jamison Olave – 3 goals – 1769 minutes played or 1 goal every 589.7 minutes – 2008 – 2 goals – 2006 minutes played or 1 goal every 1003 minutes
Pablo Campos – 2 goals – 386 minutes played or 1 goal every 193 minutes
Fabian Espindola – 2 goals – 1259 minutes played or 1 goal every 629.5 minutes – 2008 -5 goals – 642 minutes played or 1 goal every 128.4 minutes
Clint Mathis – 2 goals – 1786 minutes played or 1 goal every 893 minutes – 2008 0 goals – 590 minutes played

You can take what you want from those numbers to me the biggest numbers when it comes to goals scored is this, in 2008 we scored a total of 40 goals with 12 players contributing to the total, and so far this year we have scored 38 goals with 13 players contributing. So in 27 matches we have averaged 1.4 goals per match up from the 1.33 goals per match scored in 2008. While that isn’t much it is progress it is progress but without being able to convert those goals into wins and points it doesn’t matter much overall, and with RSL still on the outside looking in at the playoffs:


With the FC Dallas defeat of New England 1-0 tonight (we aren’t the only one losing to them), it means that FC Dallas is closing in on RSL’s total but if you want to know how much difference a point makes at this point of the season the win moves FC Dallas up to a 4.2% chance of making the playoffs, and it moved RSL up to a 21.4% chance. The match also moved TFC up to 31% and DC United up to 33% so while the 1 point between 34 and 33 is a huge gap with 3 matches left to go, the gap between 34 and 36 is much less impactful. This weekend will do a whole lot to let RSL know how much pressure will be on them and if winning their upcoming matches will even matter (if all the teams above us win, then even winning out will not do us a lot of good) so the biggest matches are those that feature teams below us and those above us, and those within our reach. Here are the big matches this weekend:

Friday Night
Chicago at LA Galaxy – this match has minimal impact on RSL’s playoff chances as both teams are far enough ahead of us that our chance of catching them with 3 matches left is very unlikely, but a Fire victory keeps LA within our reach.

Saturday
Seattle at Columbus – The Crew are already in but Seattle is on the fence and facing a team that is undefeated at home is a tough chore. A win by the Crew would be the best result for RSL and while it would keep Seattle more than one match ahead of us but within reach.

Chivas at DC United – Chivas is in a great position to move up the table with 5 matches remaining and DC United is on the outside of the playoffs for the second straight season. A Chivas win would be best for RSL as it would let us pass them with 3 points.

New England at Colorado – While it might seem like this match is one that we would like to see Colorado win, with the number of matches remaining for New England we long term would get a slight advantage from a New England win, but a draw is a solid result for RSL as well. I do think those numbers will change a bit with the New England loss at Dallas tonight. If Colorado gets the win, it would leave New England just 3 points ahead of us but they would still have a match in hand.

New York at San Jose – Well San Jose has a lot of matches remaining but they would need to win all 5 of their remaining matches to get to 42 points and since they have just 6 wins in 25 it is very unlikely they will be able to pull off the miracle. New York is out no matter what they do in their final 3 matches and no matter what happens this match will not impact our playoff hopes.

Sunday
Kansas City at Houston – Only undefeated Columbus has a better home record than Houston but a win by KC would move them up to 34 points like RSL but a Houston win would actually move RSL’s playoff chances up a small amount.

Last weekend only two results hurt RSL’s playoff hunt, with huge damage done by FC Dallas beating RSL but the New England win over Seattle also dropped RSL’s chances slightly. Every other result ended with RSL getting a boost at making the post season, this weekend RSL fans should be cheering for Chicago, Columbus, Chivas, New England, and Houston.

That is it for now and with no match this weekend I will be doing a bit more detailed look at the matches above on Friday so unless there is some breaking news this will be the last post until then.

OFF MY SOAPBOX
3-0-0 or see you in San Jose next March

Posted in The soapbox | 2 Comments »

September 30, 2009 by f4denz.

Well, it is kinda funny to hear about the RSL players ducking out quickly after their horrible match against FC Dallas and only Robbie Findley was slow enough to get caught by the media and here are his very politically correct statements:

Going down 2-0 early again this week:

“It wasn’t a good feeling but we knew we could come back from it, we did it last week but this week we weren’t successful.”

A lot of chances, the goalie had your number:

“We had enough chances to sneak back into the game and he [Dario Sala] made some good saves, some of them we definitely should have had but we can’t do anything now and we just have to look forward to the next game.”

Whether they gave up after the two goals were scored:

“We couldn’t believe it was happening again just last weekend the same thing and we let it happen again this weekend. We kept fighting and we weren’t going to give up.”

I am sorry but I had to laugh a bit after reading these statements, it almost is like Robbie is running for office and is simply afraid to admit the truth, facing a team they should beat they sucked, they laid a total rotten egg and simply looked disinterested in the match. I did think that Jason was much more honest with his evaluation of the match and his teams performance:

On the slow start in the game:

“I thought the first couple of minutes we spent the entire time in their half of the field creating chances and half chances and then the very first time they go down the field on us and get into our penalty box they score.  We’re extremely disappointed with that, extremely disappointed that it seemed so easy for them to get there in the first place and I think the players reactions was poor. I think they tend to feel sorry for themselves and weren’t willing to show some fight.”

On hoping to see some fight in the team tonight like in last week’s Houston game:

“I was kind of hoping to see that fight, something that would break our way that would lead some confidence and some momentum and some emotion from our players and there were some chances there after [Dallas’] second goal when we were in their box with clear chances to score and we don’t take them and if one of those things happens maybe the emotions and momentum shift our way and we have a good reaction but we need to show a little more fight to get to that point.”

He is right on target and it was clear that a number of players simply were going through the motions and unlike Jason I am going to mention one big name, Javier Morales. I am not sure if he is still hurt or what but his performance all year has been very subpar, and I know that many will mention how he is being marked more by opponents, and that nobody is surprised by his moves this year, but that is no excuse. I point to one clear example GBS, Guillermo Barros Schelotto who in 2008 put up 7 goals and had 19 assists and in 2009 his assist number has dropped off to a dismal 3, but he has made it up by putting 12 balls in the back of the net despite playing in at least 4 fewer matches. While Javi went from 6 goals and 15 assists and playing in all but one of RSL’s matches last year to 1 goal and 4 assists and if he starts in the 3 remaining RSL matches that will be 5 fewer than in 2008.

With the change of formation to the 4-3-3 it puts more responsibility on our attacking midfielder and simply the output hasn’t been up to par, RSL went out and offered Javi a longer term deal and has been rewarded by a much weaker effort. I like Javi but as the offensive leader on the pitch it simply has been subpar performances all year long, and much like the RSL effort against FC Dallas last weekend it simply looks as if Javi and others are just putting in their time.

The upcoming weekend

While RSL doesn’t play a MLS match this weekend, their playoff hopes are going to be greatly impacted by the matches that will take place while we enjoy a weekend off. RSL sits on 34 points with 3 matches and 9 possible points remaining, here are the teams in front of us:

Toronto FC – 35 points – off this weekend 3 matches remaining
DC United – 36 points – at home against Chivas USA 3 matches remaining
New England – 37 points – at FC Dallas Wednesday, at Colorado Saturday 5 matches remaining
Seattle – 38 points – at Columbus 3 matches remaining
Chivas – 38 points –at DC United 5 matches remaining
Colorado – 39 points – at home against New England 3 matches remaining

I am not going to list the details of the Fire, LA Galaxy, Houston, or Columbus as we are not going to likely catch any of them unless they have total meltdowns and lose all the remaining matches. I don’t think we can catch New England simply because of the number of matches they have remaining, in fact for our playoff hopes them beating FC Dallas and Colorado are in our best interest, their matches against the Crew (home and away) and Chicago doesn’t really impact our playoff chances.

Seattle is a club we might be able to catch as they play at Columbus this weekend and the Crew are undefeated at home, and they are also facing KC on the road and end their season at home against FC Dallas, both KC and FCD have very little hope of making the playoffs but have been playing spoiler for the last couple weeks and are likely to continue that trend.

DC United, face off against Chivas this weekend and then a two week break before facing off against Columbus and ending their season at KC. Tough matches and with their Champions Cup play it could mean that DC United miss the playoffs.

RSL will play a match on Friday night against BYU’s developmental USL side and next week face off a real test as Chivas de Quadalajara comes to town, but with two weeks to think about their match against New York, a team they have never beaten, RSL will need to do something special on the 14^th and need to get a lot of help the next two weekends.

OFF MY SOAPBOX
3-0-0 or early off season

Posted in The soapbox | 4 Comments »

September 28, 2009 by f4denz.

Well in what may be the biggest egg of the season laid by RSL, a “must” win or get a result road match against one of the bottom teams in MLS and living up to their horrible on the road reputation, RSL gets beat badly 3-0 by FC Dallas. It starts with Nat Borchers failure to clear a ball, Chris Wingert’s inability to even get a touch on it and wham just 5 minutes in FC Dallas and Jeff Cunningham are celebrating. Then just minutes later Wingert fails to get back into position and Robbie Russell watches as FC Dallas go up 2-0, in under 15 minutes. I can’t lay all the blame there as the others were just as awful, from nobody running onto crossed balls in the area, gotta love when 2 RSL players stand at the top of the box and watch great balls go by without moving a foot, or how about Pablo Campos getting one on one with the keeper and kicking softly to him. Heck I understand players missing plays, I can understand mistakes, but what upsets me was the apparent lack of caring by the RSL players, I saw a team just a week ago battle back against the best team in MLS after giving up early goals, even more after going a man down. Nope facing a team they had come back on just 8 weeks ago, they simply looked like they didn’t care.

For RSL it seems like the soccer gods want to keep granting chances, and when our last two results should have sealed our fate on the outside of the playoffs, yet there is still a realistic chance if you look at the playoff standings:

To make the playoffs RSL will need to do a couple things that to put simply I have real doubts about now, if you asked me two weeks ago I would have told you getting a result in their final 3 matches was a real possibility, now I am not so sure. RSL faces New York next a team they have never beaten, a team that despite being out of the playoffs for over two months have battled back and started to play the role of spoiler once again. They did this last year on October 9^th when they ruined RSL’s home opener by holding RSL to a 1-1 draw, so far this year in the last 5 matches they have played they are 2-1-1 (RSL is 2-2-1). They have beaten Columbus, and gotten draws against New England and Chivas. New York will play one more match before they head to Rio Tinto, they will face another spoiler team in San Jose, and RSL owes a lot of their slim playoff hopes to San Jose who have earned two draws with Colorado and a win over DC United to keep these teams within catching distance of RSL.

It is going to take a major change of attitude and performance for RSL to take advantage of the last two weeks results when none of the teams they are fighting for playoff spots with have buried them, only New England has taken advantage to move up into a playoff spot and they still have 5 matches left. RSL have to win their matches while hoping that Seattle, Chivas, and Colorado continue to struggle. Seattle has just one win in their last 6 matches and two of their remaining three matches are on the road, Chivas has just one win in their last 5, but have 5 matches remaining with three at home, and Colorado also has just one win in their last 5 matches and two of their final three matches are on the road including the season ender at Rio Tinto. Real will need to catch two of these teams to likely get into the playoffs and get themselves back in front of DC United and Toronto, a large task but not impossible as two of the teams we must pass are teams we play and those “6″ point matches could be the key. None of it is likely to matter if RSL can’t beat their New York curse, perhaps facing the PDL side BYU on Friday will boost their confidence, and a good showing against the real Chivas might be enough to shake the funk that has haunted RSL for the past few weeks, if not we can look forward to 3-27-10 and the first roadtrip of the new season.

OFF MY SOAPBOX
3-0-0 or early off season

Posted in The soapbox | 1 Comment »

September 26, 2009 by f4denz.

2-0-2, 3-1-0, 3-0-1 are the scenarios that keep RSL’s playoff hopes alive in one way or another. Some for Real Salt Lake to get help from other teams but the scenario that lets them control their own destiny is 3-0-1, with 10 points from their final 4 matches RSL would finish with 44 points they would have a 98.8% likelihood of making the playoffs according to sportclubstats.com, and there are 3 matchups this weekend that have huge implications on the playoff hopes of teams involved in them and top of that list is RSL vs. FC Dallas. A win by RSL would move them right back into the playoffs (depending on other results) but it would end the mathematical odds for FC Dallas as they would join San Jose and New York with a 0.00 shot at the playoffs. For RSL it would provide them a 26 point swing and put them with a 58% of making it to the post season, but a draw would drop them just below a 30% chance and a loss would be devastating and drop them to just a 17% shot.

Saying their back is against the wall is a bit of a understatement but Real Salt Lake have simply failed to take advantage of opportunities up to this point and now if they want to return to the post season must now step up and prove they are worthy. Most people agree they have the talent but it has been mental lapses, poor decisions, and some questionable officiating that has cost RSL points on the road all year. Now they get to play a match with my favorite worst official Kevin Stott, and while he tends not to give as many cards (yellow or red) or call for as many penalty kicks as others it is often that he calls fouls against one team more than the other that tilts the balance of the match. I am hoping with the attention that US Soccer has started to finally pay to the MLS officials and their limited actions to correct the issues, that Kevin will call a match down the middle and be fair. For RSL no matter how the officials try to impact the match, they must simply play their game.

The FC Dallas roster will be short a number of players as: Josh Lambo, Break Shea, Per Marosevic, and Kyle Davies all are with the US U-20 team in Egypt, they are also without out Anthony Wallace who is listed as out, and could be down another as Blake Wagner is listed as questionable. This means their normal 24 man roster could be down to just 18 bodies which can limit your options for subs on a warm and sunny day in Frisco (high temp should be about 90). For RSL they will be missing Olave after the weak red card last weekend, but other than that everyone should be available for Jason and staff to plan their strategy. The probable lineups from the official match guide look like this:

I would not be surprised if RSL make a change or two before the match starts, in fact I would almost count on it as I have to think we might put either Robbie Findley or Yura Movsisyan into the starting lineup knowing we will be in a high paced and likely high scoring match. A lot of focus has been put on how RSL will deal with Jeff Cunningham, but for me the much larger issue is Dave van den Bergh, fans only need to think back to the first ever match at Rio Tinto to know his impact, or the fact that he was the man who ended the 2008 season for RSL in the Western Conference final. While Jeff is battling to once again win the golden boot, the RSL defense knows he is coming and with Olave out a big burden will be put on Robbie Russell who is finally back to full fitness and has the speed and size to make Jeff’s night a very long one but I would look for Tony Beltran to be paying a lot of attention to Jeff. Tony has done a great job this year of playing against the best offensive players and not only holding his own but shutting them down.

Can RSL control possession? That is the real question of the match, when these teams faced earlier this season the answer in the first half was no, and it showed with FC Dallas taking a 2-0 lead in at halftime. The second half however was a very different story as RSL did something they had never done before, they came back from being down two goals to win a match as they poured in 4 second half goals and walked away with a 4-2 victory. It was a very physical match, with 28 fouls called, 8 cards issued including the sending off of Jason Kreis and Drew Moor, it featured two PK’s one made by RSL’s Robbie Findley and one missed by Cunningham. There were 28 shots, with 14 shots on goal, and 6 goals scored, it was a match that both frustrated and excited the 18,000 plus RSL fans at Rio Tinto, tonight I would expect closer to 8,000 at Pizza Hut park and hopefully they will be going home disappointed.

It will be interesting to see how some of the new faces for FCD perform, Ugo Ihemelu joined them just about a month ago from Colorado, George John the 2009 MLS Super Draft’s 14^th pick has found his way into the starting lineup for FC and now has 10 starts under his belt, and Jair Benitez joined the team from Columbia. While Sala isn’t new he has only played in 9 matches this year due to injuries but when you have so many players with so little time playing together it could create opportunities for RSL. In fact only San Jose and New York have given up more goals at home and while they have a +4 goal differential at home the 18 goals allowed should prove that RSL can score against them.

I expect this one will come down the performance of the veterans for RSL, can Javi get back into the lineup and prove to be productive, will Yura be able to get the fans back on his side by providing some more end of the season magic, can Russell step in to the backline and help RSL shut down the offensive minded FC Dallas? Dallas has scored more goals than anyone this year in MLS with 41, but they also have allowed more than everyone (FCD and NY both have allowed 43). RSL had struggled to score on the road but they put in 2 against Houston last weekend, including a short handed goal and showed a ton of heart after going a man down, but heart won’t be enough today as I think it will take 3 goals to get the 3 points. I have to pick RSL to win 3-2 and keep their playoff hopes alive.

Other matches
Seattle 1 – New England 2 – best result for RSL is a draw
LA Galaxy 1 – Columbus 2 – best result for RSL is a Crew win
Toronto 1 – Chicago 3 – best result for RSL is a Fire win
Colorado 0 – Kansas City 0 – best result for RSL is Wizard win
New York 1 – Chivas 2 – best result for RSL is a Red Bull win
San Jose 1 – DC United 1 – best result for RSL is Quakes win

OK that is it for now

OFF MY SOAPBOX
Audentis Fortuna Juvat” (3-0-1 and we are in)

Posted in The soapbox | 1 Comment »

September 26, 2009 by f4denz.

Well it was too nice of a day to spend it all inside working, so I took a vacation day and headed out to Rio Tinto this morning to catch RSL’s practice before they head off to FC Dallas for what might be the biggest challenge of the final 4 MLS matches this season. It was nice to see everyone looking healthy and it was the first practice that I saw Nelson Gonzalez taking part in practice. It was also nice to see Tino Nunez back in camp.

So here are a few of the pictures from practice:

OK, I will try to post more pictures later and I am working on my match preview for tonight’s FC Dallas matchup, it should be up by noon.

OFF MY SOAPBOX
Audentis Fortuna Juvat” (3-0-1 and we are in)

Posted in The soapbox | 1 Comment »