Real Salt Lake vs. Chivas USA preview

Early in the season Chivas looked like the hottest team in all of MLS they won 4 of their first 5 and had just one loss in their first 11 matches, and won 7 of those matches but then something happened as Chivas lost 6 of their next 7 and dropped like a brick. Then came a match against New York and right now the quickest way to get your season back on track is to play New York a team with just 3 wins and 16 losses in their 23 matches and Chivas did just that with a 2-0 win and then last weekend they got a 2-0 win against a TFC club that has just one win in their last 5 MLS matches. So now they are right back in the playoff hunt and in fact they are just 2 points out of second with 3 games in hand when compared to the Galaxy who they will face off against this weekend, in fact they are just 7 points behind Houston who has played 4 more matches than Chivas.

For RSL, this one is simple win or pack it in. A draw at home would not do much for RSL’s playoff hopes as 28 points would leave them behind 3 teams, but a win would give them 30 and actually give them an edge on a playoff spot. Pressure, yup and a lot of it on Real, but add in the pressure of missing Yura who is still listed as doubtful with an injury and rumors have been running wild about him leaving early to head to Randers as they look to solve their slow start, and Javi is also listed as doubtful with a groin strain.

Now I have no knowledge about any deal between RSL and Randers in fact the last info I got last weekend was they were still wanting him early but had made no offer to MLS or RSL to release him. I have said it before and I will say it again, since signing his deal Yura has been the hardest working player and nothing but a professional. Hell he singlehanded got RSL back into the match against FC Dallas and without him I doubt RSL would have come out with the 3 points, despite playing hurt after just minutes on the pitch with a wrist injury. In the Chicago match he was the star of the first half and when he left with an injury RSL’s attack fell flat and without him in the lineup RSL is simply not as effective as they are with him. I simply look at the fact that the 4 matches before his injury RSL was 2-1-1 and in the matches since his injury they are 1-2-1, RSL scored 9 goals in the 4 matches before his injury and just 2 since he has been out. You can question him all you want, hell his teammates have done so publicly which makes me wonder if there is more to the story but the numbers are the numbers and without him the RSL offense looks anemic.

Some other nagging injuries are plaguing RSL, Nelson Gonzalez, Will Johnson, and Andy Williams are all listed as probable with various ailments, for Chivas the news is a whole lot worse. Out are Justin Braun, Jim Curtin, Kevin Harmse, Dan Kennedy, Ante Razov, Claudio Suarez, Lawson Vaughn, Cesar Zamora, and Sasha Victorine, with Paulo Nagamura and Zach Thornton listed as probable for the match. Heck that isn’t a bad lineup in itself and the bench players for Chivas have delivered and a lot of trades have gone on with Chivas involved as former RSL players Atiba Harris and Alecko Eskandarian have left the team as Chivas tired to rebuild midseason. Perhaps no new player has made a bigger impact in all of MLS than Eduardo Lillingston with 7 goals and 1 assist for Chivas and what has happened to Paulo Nagamura this season, in 4 years and almost 9,000 minutes he had a total of 4 goals and this year in under 1,500 minutes of playing time he has that many already, including the game winner when RSL traveled down to the Home Depot Center in May.

A couple things play into RSL’s favor in the match, first is the fact that RSL has just a single loss at home this year and have a +14 goal differential, Chivas has had some success on the road with a 3-5-2 record but they have a -4 goal differential on the road and have allowed 11 goal in 10 matches but in their last two matches they haven’t allowed a single goal and have solidified their back line with Trujillo, Talley, Bornstein and Jazic. RSL will have to watch out for Maicon Santos and Jesus Padilla both new forwards with Chivas and just one match under their belts but without having seen them play they could surprise the RSL defense which struggled last week. The two strikers were brought in to boost the 3^rd worst offense in MLS with just 23 goals in 20 matches, only New York and KC have scored fewer goals this year.

With Javi out, it looks like Clint will move into that creative midfield role, something he was doing well at before the formation switch and it looks like Campos will get a start up top with Findley and Espindola. Once again I worry about how the defense will react to Sasha Kljestan who has struggled this year but could be a handful if Wingert gets out of position. How will Clint deal with Jesse Marsch who is a bulldog in the midfield and not afraid to get dirty, Mathis will have to keep his cool as they battle. Here are the probable line ups from the Game Guide:

I actually have a feeling for RSL that this will be the lineup that we see take the pitch but I am willing to be that changes will be made if there is any sign of someone not giving 100% on every play, and while the bench isn’t deep we have seen players like Raphael Cox and Ned Grabavoy make an impact coming in off the bench.

I think this will be a battle and if RSL start flat it could be over in a hurry as we saw on Sunday, Chivas has scored 13 of their 23 in the final 15 of the first half and the first 15 of the second half and they have only scored 6 goals after the 60^th minute. RSL has made it a habit of scoring in the second half as 22 of 30 have come in the second half and 18 have come after the 60^th minute. RSL is undefeated when scoring the first goal (5-0-3) and horrible (2-9-1) when giving up the first goal, and Chivas has only once come from behind to get a victory, so the first goal is likely to be the one that makes the most difference can Findley stop hitting the post long enough to give the home team an advantage? RSL still has only scored 3 of their 30 from outside of the area, which is something I believe has to improve during this stretch run. A few weeks ago I listed this as one of the matches RSL has to win if they want to make a real run at the playoffs, getting the full 3 points in each of their 4 remaining home matches is likely the only way they get close to the needed points. I do think they can beat Chivas, they proved it last year in the playoffs and outplayed them earlier this year in LA, RSL does just enough to keep hope alive with a 1-0 win. I am not sure if I call the lineup being put on the field bold or not, and wonder exactly what Jason meant on Sunday when he said “I think we’ll need to take a good hard look at who’s going to be on the field. We can’t go with guys who don’t show the effort”? I don’t see anything other than brining in two suspended players and one position change for an injured player, will that be bold enough?

OFF MY SOAPBOX
“Audentis Fortuna Juvat” (Jason the time to get bold was a couple weeks ago, now we need even more)

This entry was posted on August 26, 2009 at 12:22 am and is filed under The soapbox. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response or trackback from your own site.