Real Salt Lake vs. Chicago Fire (match preview)
August 1, 2009 by f4denz.
Well I am going to say better late than never, so RSL finds itself trying to recover from hosting the MLS All Star match midweek with 3 players seeing action by heading to the Midwest to face off against the Fire. The next 3 matches for RSL see them facing three top teams in MLS as the Fire sit just 3 points out of first in the East, then Seattle comes to Salt Lake City next weekend and they are also just 3 points out of the lead in the West and then on the 15th RSL hosts Houston the team on top of the Western Conference, there is no bigger chance for RSL to climb back into the playoff picture and prove that they are a top team in the league than to walk away with wins in these matches.
So it starts with RSL looking for their second road win and to be honest if you had asked me if I thought it was possible during the first half of the FC Dallas match last weekend I would have probably laughed at you, but RSL found something at halftime and a very different team showed up in the second half. If that team, the side with incredible energy, passion and heart which came back with 4 second half goals to secure the 4-2 win shows up then not only do they have a chance for a result, but a win. RSL has scored only 5 goals on the road but those 5 have all come in the last 4 road matches and RSL has a 1-2-2 record in their last 5 away from Rio Tinto Stadium. On the side Chicago has scored 8 goals at home while giving up 7 and earning a 2-2-4 record at Toyota Park, in fact they have only a single win at home since May, and have just two wins in the last two months 2-2-2. RSL over the last two months are 3-1-3, earing points both at home and on the road, so what will RSL need to do in order to get points this weekend, well in 50% of the matches they have played against Chicago all time they have come away with some points. Chicago has 4 wins to just a single RSL win, but 3 times this matchup has ended in a draw, and when playing in Chicago Real is 0-2-2.
RSL will be playing without Robbie Russell who is out with an injury and without head coach Jason Kreis who is suspended for his red card against FC Dallas, Chicago will be without Brian McBride who is out with an injury and John Thorrington who is suspended for his red card against Seattle last week. RSL will have to look to get ahead early as Chicago has allowed 13 goals in the first half of matches and just 7 in the second half, in fact the Fire have allowed 5 goals in the first 15 minutes of matches this season while only scoring once in that same first 15 minutes, but likely this match like many others involving these two team will come down to the last 15 minutes, where RSL has scored 12 of their 28 goals, and Chicago has 9 of their 25.
For me the most interesting matchup will likely be how Kyle Beckerman matches up against Blanco, they were teammates on Wednesday but not today. Kyle is returning from what almost everyone considers a great run of form with the USMNT in the Gold Cup, but hasn’t played with his RSL teammates in over a month. I think the play of Fabian Espindola will be one of the major keys for RSL, while his energy and effort against FCD last week were impressive, he was less than effective as passes were off and he simply turned the ball over too much, he will need to be much sharper if RSL is going to be able to get 3 very important points on the road. So everyone who reads my blog knows I love the work done by sportsclubstats.com and according to their numbers RSL sits with a 37.7% chance of making the playoffs, but a win today would boost their chances by over 20 percentage points, depending on how other teams do this weekend. This would be a huge swing as we head into a stretch where 4 of our next 6 are at home, where we have only lost one match, last year the matches after the All Star event saw RSL struggle as they had just 3 matches in the month following the event with 2 on the road. This year RSL will have a busy schedule with 6 matches evenly divided between home (Seattle, Houston, Chivas) and road (Chicago, New England, KC) and getting points during this stretch will be the key to a solid playoff run 18 available points and I would think RSL needs at least 12-13 to get into themselves solidly into the playoff race.
So here are the projected lineups from the official game guide
I am going to predict that there are a few changes to this by each team, as RSL hasn’t done well without Mathis in the lineup (remember the first half at San Jose?). Don’t be surprised if Clint is up top and Fabi on the bench at the start of the match. I expect that the Fire will push a high line as most of their scoring has come from their midfield, and without McBride it is Pappa who has 2 of the last 5 goals scored by Chicago, and while the lack of work rate and constant flopping by Blanco are annoying he has made RSL pay before and has 2 goals and an assist in his 3 matches against us.
So the smart money says to pick a draw, maybe a 0-0 like DC United a few weeks back, but I think this match will be 1-1 heading into the final 15 minutes and that will be where the test of heart comes into play, can RSL find a way to continue to attack and play for a full 90 on the road? Will Rachid or Pablo see action and provide a spark for RSL? Or will one of the best 1-2 attacking combos in MLS Findley and Movsisyan (13 goals and 4 assists) be up to a huge road win? I think RSL pulls out a 2-1 win as they build on all the positives of the last couple weeks.
Other Matches:
Toronto 1- New England 1
KC 1- Dallas 2
DC United 1- Houston 2
Columbus 2- Colorado 0
Seattle 2- San Jose 1
OFF MY SOAPBOX
“Audentis Fortuna Juvat”