It was an active day for RSL with the pickup of Pablo Campos, whose numbers on the surface may not look overly impressive just over 600 minutes played for San Jose and two goals and two assists. If you look a little deeper you realize that he has as many goal and assists for the Quakes as Darren Huckerby and only Arturo Alvarez and Ryan Johnson had more goals than Pablo, he accounts for just over 10% of SJ’s goals, and just under 10% of their assists. He is an effective goal scorer as he took only 11 shots and 8 of those were on goal, but again those numbers could be deceiving as one of his goals came on a PK.
My first question is why would SJ let him go, it’s not like they have a ton of depth at forward, he isn’t that expensive of a player (under 70K), are they needing a slot for a bigger move? Consider that he becomes the 6th Quakes player to leave the team this season by trade or release, it all is way too interesting and only time will tell what will happen but he has a decent first touch and has good size. Besides he is from Brazil, and will be the first player from there to wear a RSL jersey if I am correct.
If the rumors are right and I hear that they are we will soon be announcing another first for RSL, that will be Dutch midfielder Rachid El Khalifi, joining the team. He did spend time with the team in the preseason and was part of the SC Cambuur Leeuwarden team last year where he scored 5 goals in 29 matches. It appears that Rachid is another one of the RSL midfielders that can play forward as well, something we have seen in the past with Will Johnson, Clint Mathis, and Andy Williams. You can see one of his goals at 5:50 of this youtube clip (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=foyZ1vTAi6s) and some pictures and highlights follow the pictures in this clip:
It looks like he is a great creator offensively and when given a chance is willing to take shots inside and outside of the box.
So that leaves RSL with a little bit of money (I think around 100-125,000) in cap room and a roster spot still open, what type of move can we make? Is there a young striker in Mexico waiting in the wings? I don’t know many other current MLS players that would be available, can any of you think of some? How about bringing back Jamie Watson? Before you start laughing consider that he has 9 goals and 5 assists in 969 minutes with USL 2 Wilmington, tops of the league. The USL 2 season ends in the middle of August and perhaps we can pull some strings and get Jamie some time with Austin to see if perhaps he has matured both in his play and attitude. OK I am not serious but one has to think that someone will give him a look and maybe just maybe Jamie will get a second chance. Hard not to cheer for him, he was a hell of nice kid and his folks are classy people.
RSL’ers in the All Star Match
So earlier today it was announced that RSL will not have a single player on the All Star team, but at least two as “The Don” surprised everyone by skipping Beckham and announcing Javier Morales and Kyle Beckerman as his two picks to the All Star team. You can read the details here. I have to admit I was shocked and for the first time in a very long time shocked in pleasant way by something the league’s leader did. I am still going to hold out hope that somehow Clint Mathis can make the squad as very few players are more deserving.
The Numbers
Well each week I have looked at RSL’s chances to make the playoffs and last week they were a 53.9% chance of making the playoffs but this week even without seeing action we dropped to a 49.7% chance based on LA winning and Toronto winning both moved ahead of RSL in likelihood of making the playoffs. So with 20 points from 16 games RSL is averaging 1.25 points per game, if nothing changes RSL will end the season with 38 points and according to sportclubstats.com that would leave us with just a 5.1% chance of making the playoffs, 3 more points would boost us to a 60.8% chance and 6 more points would give us a total of 44 and a 98.9 percent likelihood of making the playoffs. That simply means that points at home can’t continue to be surrendered and we have to grab some points on the road, and while Columbus isn’t exactly an easy target when playing at Crew Stadium (4-0-4) we have shown in Houston that we can play with anyone. Our best shots will come in Chicago (1-2-4 at home), KC (3-3-2 at home), and at Dallas (3-3-3 at home).
Last week we were a single point behind Colorado and LA and now we are 4 points behind both of them, LA plays tomorrow night against New York and Saturday Colorado is on the road facing DC United. It is likely we could be 7 points behind LA as New York is the worst team in MLS with just 2 wins, 13 losses and 4 draws. We have 7 matches at home and 7 of the road to get to 44 points we need to win 5 at home and get draws in the other 2, for 17 points. That means we would need to get 7 points on the road that means 2 wins and a draw out of 7 matches, or 1 win and 4 draws, both are possible.
In fact if we can repeat what we did over our final 7 home matches last year, 4 wins, 1 loss, and 2 draws for 14 points, and our final 7 road matches, 1 win, 4 draws, and 2 losses for 7 points, we would end the season with 41 points and a 60.8 percent chance of making the playoffs. All it takes is turning one of those losses into a win(ending with 44 point) or 2 of those draws into wins(45 points) and folks we are sitting pretty, since going to the 30 game schedule no team with 40 points has missed the playoffs.
One number that really makes me optimistic about our 2nd half is the fact that we are sitting at +5 in goal differential as opposed to a -1 at the same point last year, another is the fact that in 2008 we had 12 players score goals and already this year we have had 11 players score goals. So while some others only see the problems, I see some things that make me hold out a lot of hope for the final 14 matches of this season.
Wow the official opening of the transfer window and it looks like RSL has filled two of their 3 open spots. First up is a new Forward, but one we saw on July 3rd as we get Pablo Campos from San Jose for our 2010 2nd round pick we got from Dallas. Pablo has 2 goals and 2 assists in 611 minutes of action, he is 26 years old and from Brazil and has international experience.
The second player is rumored to be Rachid El Khalifi, s 30 yr old midfielder who has been playing in the Netherlands. He did spend time with the team in the preseason during their California stint.
There is also a rumor on Behind the Shield saying that both Kyle Beckerman and Javi Morales will be named to the All Star team, not sure if they are replacements for other players or part of Kinnear’s picks to be announced next Monday. I would still like to see Clint Mathis get on the squad as he is my MLS comeback player of the year.
OK I have to get back to work, but will update later this evening.