Well seeing there is no MLS action for RSL this week I am not going to spend a lot of time previewing the friendly match this weekend, but I do want to take a little time and look at the numbers. So first up is my favorite number, RSL currently has a 53.9% chance of making the playoffs according to sportsclubstats.com and despite the clear statement by head coach Jason Kreis “if the playoffs started today, we wouldn’t make it” RSL is sitting with the 8th most likely chance of making the playoffs.
What I find interesting about the numbers is that according to the formulas (which include what opponents you will face, at home or on the road, and many other factors) we are more likely to make the playoffs than the LA Galaxy who sit in front of us in the standings. The Galaxy have a 40.3% chance of making the playoff, but because of their record and upcoming schedule they are less likely to make the playoffs than RSL.
While RSL doesn’t have a league match this weekend all the other Western Conference teams are in action so the standings could change and RSL could be facing a further uphill climb. Here is the current Western table:
For individual numbers Robbie Findley is still tied for 5th in goals scored in MLS, he is now 4 behind last year’s MLS MVP Guillermo Barros Schelotto. Clint Mathis is tied for 2nd in the league with 6 assists just one behind Brad Davis of Houston. Nick Rimando is still tied for 4th in GAA with his 0.97 average, he is also 4th with 4 shutouts. A team number that most people won’t know is that RSL is currently 4th in the league in home attendance average with 16,045 per match. In front of us are Seattle (29,715), Toronto FC (20,288), and LA Galaxy (19,292), for a team that has struggled in the standings being behind 3 teams that play in much larger markets isn’t too bad.
So I had an interesting comment made to me at the press conference on Wednesday by one of the RSL staffers, he mentioned that no matter what RSL put on their official blog the majority of comments are negative and reactive. I tend to understand what he is saying but may disagree a bit, his point was that I post what I believe to be logical statements of facts and when I do I get attacked by a lot of people. He is right and nothing about that surprises me and as I think about it I know why it is, I am not an optimistic person by nature as I tend to believe I am a realist. I try to make judgments based on facts and logic, I try to look not only at what happens but why it happens and if other outcomes could come. I have never claimed to be a soccer expert, if you believe what Malcom Gladwell’s research says, you have to do something for about 10,000 hour to be an expert at something. Well I think I have played about 100 hours of soccer in my life, if you consider I watch about 4-5 matches on TV a week and have done so for the last 5-6 years that is about 2,000 hours and probably another 1,000 watching live matches over the last 20 years, that adds up to 3,100 hours. That is about 1/3 of what it would take to be a real expert, if you add in the time I have spent writing blog posts (380 in total) it might add another 500 hours to the total. But as I look at the boards, facebook, other blogs a lot of what I read is people expressing their passion, but a large chunk of it is negative.
When I post things, I do so trying to be as honest as I can, I am a fan of soccer, a fan of MLS, and a fan of RSL, I do not for a second believe the state of any of those things is perfect. Heck I just graded the team and most of the players as not meeting expectations, I was one of the few who thought Fabian coming back wasn’t going to make a huge impact (so far I have been right on that one), I believed that with increased playing time that both Yura and Robbie could score 10 goals and Robbie is on his way and if Yura plays out his contract he will likely make that number as well.
I stated weeks ago that the current performance of RSL is below expectations, the expectations of fans, staff, coaches, and players and all of them were set by the great performance over the final third of the season last year and the playoff run. Well Jason hit it on the head, we need to finish our chances in front of goal better, we need to defend in front of our goal better, and we have to avoid the mental mistakes that have left us short handed in 25% of our matches. But his message to fans was spot on as well (it was a loud room when I recorded this so you might have to adjust your volume):
So what exactly do the numbers say?
So the blue line is points, higher is better and you will notice that we are tied with last season. The red line is goals scored and of course higher is better and we are far ahead of any year in RSL history. The green line is goals against and lower is better and we are have allowed fewer goals through 16 matches than any other season at this point, just one better than last year.
So how can I be negative, we have the same points, have scored more goals and allowed fewer, it isn’t perfect but when you look at the history and the numbers we are as good as it has ever been. Do I expect better, yes, should we as fans expect better, of course, but does it mean that we should stop supporting the team, hell no. We have a nice break until our next home MLS match on July 24th and while our state will celebrate Pioneer day, RSL fans will be getting ready for one of the most exciting weeks in our history as we host the All Star match, I say we turn out in force and support our team this weekend when we will likely face a very mixed crowd of RSL fans and Club America fans, and when they come back to face Dallas let’s show the team that we are still behind them.
2010 Jersey prototype
A classic example of RSL fans venting venom, listen no group of fans can agree on everything but to see people going nuts over a basic jersey design is just funny. I made this challenge on the RSL blog and I will make it hear, if you can come up with a better selection from the Adidas 2010 line then let me know. Better yet, design something better and I will post what you submit to me at roguecavaliers@comcast.net and we can have a vote and I will take the results to the head of RSL marketing and let him know what you think.
Here is what the jersey prototype looks like:
and
OFF MY SOAPBOX
This entry was posted on July 10, 2009 at 12:45 am and is filed under The soapbox. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response or trackback from your own site.
