Real Salt Lake vs. San Jose (WWID & Match Preview)

OK so RSL should be looking for revenge for what was in my opinion one of their worst performances in recent history back at the end of May, just a note since that match Real hasn’t lost a match. Both sides will be missing some talent, for RSL Beckerman, Johnson, Alexandre are all taking part in the Gold Cup and while Morales is listed as doubtful and Findley is listed as questionable both were very active in practice and I have a feeling that both will see action. For San Jose they will likely be without Darren Huckerby, who is by far their best player and defender Ryan Cochrane is out recovering from ankle injury.

What Would I Do?

Well it is easy, you are missing players but playing at home against a side that has allowed 27 goals in 14 matches, only New York has given up more (28 in 18 matches), so you attack and then you attack some more and when you’re done doing that you attack again. RSL has scored 22 goals, 3rd most in MLS and their 18 home goals is more than any other team’s home total, and with the way the RSL defense has been playing in recent weeks giving up just 2 goals in 4 matches and posting two clean sheets and being at home aggressive is what I would expect. So my starting lineup would be this:

Rimando
Beltran-Olave-Borchers-Wingert
Russell-Grabavoy-Morales(Williams if Morales can’t go)
Mathis-Movsisyan-Findley

I think Robbie is fit enough to get back into the mix and with Fabi doing well but unable to convert chances getting Findley back into the mix at home is probably a really good thing. The bench will be thin as we only will have 21 current players on our roster (Nimo is on loan) and 3 are on national team duty, so that would leave us with just 18 eligible players so everyone here should get a shot to be on the bench.

So let’s look at the scenarios, up first is the likely event that RSL goes into the half with a lead as San Jose has allowed 14 goals in the first half of matches. If this is the case then I don’t make any changes until the 60th minute unless Javi’s ankle is bothering him, in that case if we are up a single goal or even I bring in Andy to give us that spark that he always brings. If we are up at the 60 minute mark, then I bring in Cox and get him some playing time and reward the great work ethic in practice and let Russell get a break, I still bring in Andy but with a motivation more to rest Javi. At 75 if we are still up, I get Joy into the match and back towards being fully match fit. With a light schedule (just the exhibition against Club America next weekend), it is a great chance to rest some folks and give some young players a chance to get some playing time.

Scenario number two is if RSL is even or behind at the half, 9 of San Jose’s 17 goals have come in the first half, in the unlikely event we are down at the half, then I bring in Williams for Morales if his ankle is bothering him, or for Wingert (moving Russell to the backline) because Andy always seems to add energy and offensive spark to the team. I also consider the fitness of Findley and if his ankle is anything but 100% I bring in Espindola, if I don’t make this move at the half I do it at the 60th minute. If after 75 minutes we are still not ahead, then I would bring in Nunez for Russell and go with a 3-4-3 by moving Mathis into the midfield and putting Tino up top with the others.

This is a match that RSL really needs to win and facing a team with 8 losses, only New York has more, at home means that 3 points should expected to start the second half of the season and would put RSL in front of their 2008 pace and closer to securing a playoff spot.

Match Preview

There are a couple things that really stand out to me as I look at the match, first is that San Jose has allowed 10 more goals than they have scored (27 allowed- 17 scored) while RSL has a plus 5 goal differential with 22 scored and just 17 allowed. Those number are even more telling as you look at RSL’s 18 goals at home with just 7 allowed for a +11 home goal differential, while San Jose has a -11 road goal deficit with just 6 scored and 17 allowed, so RSL scores 2.57 goals per match at home and San Jose allows 2.43 goals per game on the road. The Game guide shows the probable lineups as:

I never trust these and knowing how tight lipped Jason is about his starting lineup and how guys looked at practice yesterday, I would expect one or two changes to the projected lineup. For San Jose I have to admit that I have been impressed with RSL cast off Ryan Johnson (yes expect to hear the “you can’t score with your Johnson” chant tonight), who leads SJ with 6 goals, he has shown that he has found a way to capitalize on his speed to convert that into goals and the matchup with him and our defenders should be entertaining, as Beltran and Olave both have the pace to keep up with him and so far Tony has done well in closing down most teams start players.

I also hear that Cornell Glen will likely be rejoining SJ for the match, I doubt he will start but his only goal this year for the Quakes came against RSL in the 2-1 loss at Buck Shaw field. I can’t call a place with wood bleachers and port-a-potties a stadium. He could impact the match, but the choice of Huckerby to remove himself from this match is an interesting sign of the struggles that San Jose are facing, when Darren joined the struggling side last year he was able to pick them up and make them a playoff contender, but this year he has only seen action in half of San Jose’s matches and has just on goal and two assists in 14 potential matches. Last year he played in 14 matches for SJ and had 6 goals and 4 assists, and I hear rumors of a lot of dissent in the locker room for the Quakes. One has to wonder why they let players like Cam Weaver and Nick Garcia go, and have brought in players like Chris Wondolowski and Aaron Pitchkolan both of who would seem to be downgrades?

For RSL’s attacking players knowing that only Chris Leitch has more than 400 minutes of playing time this year, how will we take advantage of Zaher (351 minutes), McDonald (180 minutes), and Pitchkolan (384 minutes) and potential communications with Joe Cannon, who is struggling with a GAA of 1.93 and not a single clean sheet this season. RSL will need to control the ball and force San Jose to chase and then exploit that weak backline and make Cannon suffer, we only took 8 shots when the teams faced off in May but I would expect double that number at home tonight. Forcing San Jose to chase will also RSL to take advantage of a warm (80’s with high humidity-possibility of storms) and the elevation (4,200 plus feet), a fact that help RSL score late goals, 9 in the final 15 minutes of matches this year, while San Jose has just one goal after the 75th minute of their matches.

Despite missing a number of important pieces to call ups and injuries, I expect that RSL will find a way to give fans another Rio Tinto firework show and I am not talking about the one after the match. Knowing they are short handed expect RSL to look for a couple early goals to give them a bit of a cushion, this one could be a blow out like the Columbus or New England matches but I expect that it won’t get that crazy, nope a 3-1 win is what I am going to predict.

Other Predictions
DC 1 - Columbus 2
Chicago 2 - Colorado 2
New York 1 - FC Dallas 2
Houston 2 - Kansas City 2
New England 1 - LA Galaxy 2

Gold Cup
Canada 2 - Jamaica 2
Costa Rica 1 - El Salvador 0
Honduras 2 - Haiti 1
Grenada 0 - USA 3
Panama 1 - Guadeloupe 0
Nicaragua 1 - Mexico 2

I will see you at the match, until then I am

OFF MY SOAPBOX

This entry was posted on July 3, 2009 at 4:18 pm and is filed under The soapbox. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response or trackback from your own site.