Real Salt Lake by the Numbers (midseason review)
So each week I have looked at how RSL is doing by looking at a variety of the numbers and then comparing them to previous seasons, other MLS teams, and even how individual numbers on the team are impacting overall performance. Perhaps the most important number I have been looking at is the likelihood of Real Salt Lake making the 2009 playoffs, which is an expectation of myself and most fans. I have used the numbers provided by sportsclubstats.com, which looks at how all the matches in the league and how they impact the playoff chances of each team, the results are published as a percentage of the likelihood that the team will make the playoffs. For RSL the low spot of the season came just a few weeks ago after the 1-1 draw with Colorado, which dropped the RSL chances of making the playoffs to just 24.85% after 6 straight weeks of their chances at the playoffs dipping lower and lower. Last week coming off the 1-1 road draw with MLS’s best team the likelihood of RSL making the playoffs was up to 43.17%, but after beating a TFC which was ahead of them in the playoff race and some other interesting weekend results the numbers have improved to:
61.23% is now the likelihood that RSL will make the playoffs this season and if the Independence Day weekend is kind to RSL that number could jump over 70%, every match this weekend will impact the number. For a little historic reference, last year in week 15 RSL was sitting at 60.13% after beating eventual MLS Cup champions Columbus 2-0. Not a lot of improvement but it is a little better than last year, and perhaps that number is so close because RSL is sitting with 19 points after 15 matches and that is the exact same number as last year. 19 points is 10 points better than the 2007 season, 6 points better than 2006, and 7 points better 2005.
When you look at the standings for the Western Conference they look like this:
Since Seattle is off this weekend, RSL fans should pay close attention to the results when the Chicago Fire travel to the mile high Dick’s. A win by RSL and loss by Colorado would put us ahead of them and just a win behind Seattle.
So we have looked at the playoffs, points and standings and now let’s take a look at how the offense and defense are doing:
The lower the red bar the better and we have allowed fewer goals after 15 matches than in any of our previous seasons, and the higher the blue bar the better and we have scored more goals in our first 15 matches of the season than any other year in RSL history.
How about individual numbers? RSL’s leader in goals is Robbie Findley with 6 goals, despite being out the last 3 weeks with injuries he is tied for 5th in MLS for goals scored. The Clint Mathis resurgence this season is truly worthy of a All Star spot, his 6 assists are tied for second in MLS just one behind Houston’s Brad Davis, he has also added in 2 goals. Nick Rimando appears to have recovered from his injury and he has lead the defensive effort of RSL in just allowing 2 goals in their last 4 matches, including two clean sheets, in fact the recent weeks have seen Nick’s GAA drop to 0.97 which is 4th best in MLS and his 4 clean sheets is tied for 3rd in MLS. A clean sheet on Saturday would drop is number to .84, the same as Kasey Keller. Yura has recently found his scoring form and only 4 players have more game winning goals than he does, and his streak of 4 straight matches with a goal/assist is tied for the longest active streak in MLS and just two shy of the longest streak of the season.
Team numbers are also impressive as RSL is 3rd in the league in goals, the two teams(DC United & Seattle) in front of us both have played 16 matches vs. our 15. We are 5th in assists, 2nd in both shots and shots on goal and 4th in goals allowed. One not so impressive number is that RSL has the longest goalless streak of the year at 350 minutes, it would take New York two more matches without scoring a goal to tie that streak. At home RSL is the best scoring team in the league with a 2.57 average in their 7 home matches so far this year, on the road only New York is worse than RSL’s 0.50 average, but NY is much worse with just a 0.10 average on the road, that is one goal in their 10 road matches.
So what does all of this mean? Well it means that things aren’t nearly as bad as many have thought, but it also means that we haven’t lived up to anyone’s expectations, I thought we would have at least one more win than our current five, I expected two fewer loses than our current 6. With 2 more home matches in their next 3 before the All Star match, we have a real chance to improve those numbers as we face the bottom two teams in the West (San Jose and FC Dallas). Our only road match before then is at Columbus, who will likely be looking for revenge for their 4-1 thrashing at Rio Tinto, it will be a great challenge to see if RSL can play as well against the second place Eastern Conference team as they did against the West leading Houston two weeks ago.
I hold out a lot of faith that RSL will have a better second half of the season than they did the first half, if RSL can go 6-4-5 over their final 15 matches we would end the year at 11-10-9 with 42 points and no team with 40 or more points has missed the playoffs since MLS went to a 30 match season and a 12-9-9 would give us 45 points and a 99.9% chance of making the playoffs.
Tomorrow I will be heading out to practice to take some pictures and do some thinking about my mid season report card, I hope to have that up some time Thursday evening, until then I am
OFF MY SOAPBOX
This entry was posted on July 2, 2009 at 12:23 am and is filed under The soapbox. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response or trackback from your own site.