Real Salt Lake vs. Toronto FC (match preview)

Well if you remember back to the Colorado match the first of May and how poorly the officiating was by Edvin Jurisevic in his 5th match as a head official, well guess what? He’s back and with just one more match under his belt, can Edvin do a better job this time? While the MLS has had plenty of officiating issues this year, and it seems like RSL has featured in many of them, our biggest issue is call ups for national team duty and injuries.

One bit of news on that front is that Andy Williams will not be joining the Jamaican national team for the Gold Cup, with so many family issues he is choosing to stay close to home, this move creates relief for fans, teammates and staff. This also gives RSL a great option for the 4-3-3 either in the starting lineup or off the bench when a offensive spark is needed, Andy is always exciting to watch.

Here are the projected lineups from the Game Guide

It appears that the injuries to Robbie Findley and Fabian Espindola will keep both out of the starting lineup, but we know that lineups often change at the last minute. I am hoping that Andy’s decision to stay with RSL will perhaps bring him into the starting lineup to give RSL an offensive push against TFC. Last year each team won their home leg of the series and all time TFC has a 2-1-1 advantage when facing RSL.

There are a couple numbers that really seem to provide RSL with an advantage first is when TFC allows goals and the second is Toronto’s goal deficit on the road and RSL’s huge goal surplus at home. TFC have given up 9 goals in the first 30 minutes of matches, RSL only 5 in the first 30 minutes, and despite the fact that RSL has given up 5 goals after the 75th minute of matches Toronto has given up 7 (the same number RSL have scored after the 75th minute). Toronto is a team that has scored most of their goals, 11 of 21, in minutes 46-76, while RSL has 6 in the first half and 13 in the second half.

The second issue is the fact that TFC has allowed 12 goals in their 5 road matches, but you have to remember they have scored 9 goals as well including 3 in their season opening win at KC, and 3 in a draw at DC United. TFC has played hewer road games than any other team in MLS with just 5 and are 1-2-2 in those matches, while RSL is 3-1-2 at home. For RSL playing at Rio Tinto is special and only once this year have they been shut out(KC L 0-2), and only once have they scored just once(Col T 1-1), so in their other 4 matches RSL has scored at total of 14 goals for an average of 3.5 per match.

The most threatening part of the TFC lineup is their midfield, Guevara might be a head case but his 5 goals and 4 assists have to have him in the MVP race as MLS hits the middle of the season, the relocated DeRo adds in 5 more goals and a assist, and Sam Cronin adds another goal and two more assists. So 11 goals and 7 assists from those 3 players, roughly half of the TFC offensive stats come from them and when you consider that one has to wonder if RSL head coach Jason Kreis is tempted to go back to the 4-4-2 in order to provide some more defensive grit? Even more when you consider that Jamison Olave is suspended for the match.

For RSL the threat doesn’t end in the midfield, while Chad Barrett may only have two goals and two assists so far this season he has scored 3 goals against RSL in just 326 minutes of action, he is one of only 4 Current TFC players to ever have scored against RSL; Dwayne De Rosario has 2 goals and 4 assists in 11 matches against RSL, Amado Guevara has 2 goals and 2 assists in the 6 matches he has played against RSL, and Adrian Serioux has a single goal and single assist in his 4 matches against RSL.

One upside is the Nick Rimando has a 1.00 GAA when facing TFC, but RSL has just 3 all time goals against TFC, one each from Findley, Movsisyan, and Olave. The RSL offensive effort will be facing Stefan Frei who since becoming the starter has a 1.48 GAA and 3 shutouts, not too bad for the 13th pick in the 2009 draft. If Tino Nunez gets the start it will be his 3rd start and a great chance to add to his 280 minutes of MLS action, it is just Tino’s second year since being drafted in second round(17th overall) of the 2008 draft.

The backline for TFC features some great players but with 2nd year defender Nana Attakora-Gyan who plays both midfield and defense lining up next to Nick Garcia who came to TFC just weeks ago from San Jose there might be a chance to take advantage of players not used to playing with each other yet. The other side features Jim Brennan and Adrian Serioux, who joined TFC from FC Dallas in the offseason, both are solid veterans.

Head coach Jason Kreis said in an interview that “A win against Toronto is a necessity”, and I agree with him, this is the middle of the season for RSL and a win would put them at 5-6-4 and 19 points. Those numbers aren’t bad but the early season struggles on the road have hurt RSL in the standings but it is a long season and with a good home stretch 5 of their next 7 are at home, this is the chance to move up the standings and get closer to securing a playoff spot for a second straight year.

So this should be an exciting match as it will likely provide some RSL players with a chance to crack the starting lineup and see if they can impress both staff and fans, and maybe just secure more playing time. TFC is coming in feeling good about themselves after back to back wins over New York, but they have struggled on the road and despite a couple rough home matches RSL has been a dominating team at Rio Tinto, this one ends up 3-1 RSL.

Other Predictions

New York 0 - Columbus 2
Colorado 1 - Seattle 2
Houston 2 - LA 0
Brazil 2 - USA 1

OFF MY SOAPBOX

This entry was posted on June 27, 2009 at 6:27 pm and is filed under The soapbox. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response or trackback from your own site.