Real Salt Lake @ LA Galaxy (WWID & match preview)

Well RSL is mired in one of the longest winless periods in team history at 7 matches, there have been 3 draws in that stretch but after winning 3 of their first 5 matches many people had Real Salt Lake listed among the elite teams in MLS. Now most people have use at the bottom with just 2-3 teams below us, there are rumblings among fans and pundits that changes need to be made. Could it be players, coaches, or other staff members? I am not in the group that is in panic mode, because when I look at 4 critical matches in the last 7, I see that flukes and bad luck play a role in the results.

The 2-2 draw was a match that RSL should have won, a unlucky bounce that hit Will Johnson’s hand changed the match from a likely 1-0 win to a match with 5 minutes of the most frantic play in MLS history and the first match in league history where 3 goals were scored in stoppage time ending the draw. The next week we play Chivas at the HDC and while we play a very defensive style and only get a few offensive chances, it is the normally sure footed Kyle Beckerman who fails to clear a ball cleanly that directly leads to the only goal of the match, but 9 time out of 10 that ball is cleared out and the opportunity for Chivas is gone. When a team heads into RFK they usually plan on coming out getting a loss handed to them, but RSL went in and played a 4-5-1 and dominated the match but a couple shots off the frame of the goal keep the score 0-0, but this one could have easily been a RSL win. Finally last week, a stupid yellow card for arguing with the officials made all the difference, if Robbie Russell doesn’t get that card, then the foul just minutes later would have been his first yellow and not a red card and Colorado wouldn’t get a man advantage. The result would have likely been a 1-0 win over Rocky Mountain Cup rival Colorado, instead of the 1-1 draw.

Now we head on the road to end our season series with the Galaxy, and if you only knew that Beckham still wasn’t with the club and that Landycakes was out on National team duty you would think that RSL would be sitting pretty. That would be the case if you hadn’t watched the LA @ TFC matchup from last week, not many teams go into BMO field and out play Toronto, but that is exactly what LA did. Was it a fluke? No in fact the lone goal by TFC should have been disallowed for an obvious offside call, but LA was sharp and looked like a team that was working for just their second win of the season. Gone was the LA who was playing every match like they just were trying not to get beat, gone was the team with 9 draws in 12 matches. In fact who would have guessed that LA is one of only two teams to have not lost on the road? The fact that we are entering the middle of June and that RSL doesn’t have a win on the road is no stretch, in fact they have never won a road match before June.

What Would I Do?

So in RSL last 3 road matches they have played well in two matches (Chivas and DC United) with the 4-5-1, and horrible against San Jose in the 4-4-2 when they inserted a new duo up front (Fabi and LME) and played without Clint Mathis in the starting lineup. So I am facing a LA side that is without their stars, and with a match at Houston next weekend this might be my best chance for a win on the road before September. Do I go back to the 4-5-1 and hope that somebody can score? We had good chances in both the Chivas and United matches, but we didn’t convert. Do I hope that the traditional 4-4-2 will work better this time? I know I can’t play either of the Robbie’s as Russell is suspended and Findley is hurt with an ankle injury and didn’t travel with the team. Do I push my luck and play the 4-3-3 that caught Colorado by surprise for the first half last week?

LA has given up 7 goals in their 6 home matches, they have also scored 7, and they have just one win (a late PK given that lead to their 1-0 win over New York). I know that I have (again) a very inexperienced head official in Jasen Anno who had been in charge of just 6 MLS matches and has issued 4 red cards in those matches. I also have the wild card factor of Kevin Stott (league’s worst official) but at least he is relegated to the 4th official. I know that last year both matches ended like the one last month at Rio Tinto in 2-2 draws, and that a win in this match would pull me even with LA in the standings. I know that all time the series with LA is almost dead even as LA has 5 wins to RSL’s 4 and 5 times the matchup has ended in a draw, that LA has scored 23 goals in the 14 matches and RSL has found the back of the net 22 times, this is as dead even as it can get in MLS.

I go big and I play the 4-3-3 at the start and look to take control of the match, last year in the road leg of this series, RSL scored an early goal, that was waved off by the officials incorrectly. It was that goal that lead to the back flip that effectively ended Espindola’s season last year. I am going to tweek the line up a bit from what was used last week and go with:

Rimando
Wingert-Borchers-Olave-Beltran (if Joy is healthy enough to go at least 45 minutes I start him in place of Wingert)
Grabavoy-Beckerman-Morales
Movsisyan-Mathis-Escalada (the Escalada over Fabi decision is based on how they have played in the last two matches, if either had a better week in practice it could change the decision)

I attack LA in a way that they haven’t had to deal with and shoot for a goal in the first 10 minutes, RSL has had nothing but problems scoring on the road and my hope is that this change will show the confidence I have in our team and our offensive capabilities. I adjust at halftime based on how the first half goes, if we are ahead then I drop back into a 4-5-1 to get more possession and be prepared for any LA adjustments.

If we are tied or behind, then I move Mathis to the midfield for Grabavoy and bring in Espindola. I reevaluate at 60 minutes and if I am still in the 4-3-3 and ahead I adjust to the 4-5-1 for the final 30 to shut down LA, if we are still tied or behind, then I bring in Nunez for whichever striker is out of gas and pull a back and bring in Johnson to go with a never played by RSL before 3-4-3 and pour it on. Listen what is there to lose? We are in a position of being out of the playoffs, at least I would show everyone on the team, all the fans, and every other team in the league that we are willing to do whatever to get the win. It could force teams to really have to wonder what will RSL do next. Remember ‘Audentis Fortuna Juvat”

Match Prediction

Well you now know what I would do, but I am nowhere near qualified to coach a MLS team. Here is the official match guide and what the projected lineup will be:

I don’t believe that this lineup is right, I have to believe that Clint Mathis will be in the lineup. At San Jose the team looked lost and confused without his leadership and creativity on the pitch, so the question is who comes off, Johnson or Grabavoy? Depends on what type of mentality Jason is using this week, you would think you keep Grabavoy in if your being more defensive in your approach and Johnson if you want more offensive energy.

The Galaxy are lacking depth on defense with injuries to Franklin and Marshall have them listed as out, so they will have to deal with having guys like Leonard Griffin who has just 16 minutes of MLS playing time this year and under 900 minutes in his 3 year MLS career, or oft injured Tony Sanneh who has been in and out of the lineup this year. LA will likely start two guys with a ton of experience in Todd Dunivant and Gregg Berhalter and two guys without much experience in AJ DeLaGarza (the 19th pick in the 2009 MLS draft) and Omar Gonzalez (3rd pick in the 2009 MLS draft)who is the only LA player to have played every minute of the 2009 season.

For RSL the biggest threat is likely to come in the form of two former RSL players, Chris Klein has probably been the saving grace of LA for the last 2 years and well Dema Kovalenko hasn’t lead LA to many wins (they only have two) he has added grit to their midfield. We will also need to watch out for the Toronto killers, Alan Gordon and Edson Buddle both scored last week in the LA 2-1 win over TFC, but one has to remember that of the 15 goals that LA has scored this year 10 of them involved Landycakes (6 goals and 4 assists).

While LA hasn’t lost a match since April 4th and RSL hasn’t won one since April 25th, we have been streak enders a number of times this year already. We handed DC United their first loss and their only loss until two weeks ago. New England came into Rio Tinto undefeated and got trounced 6-0, for their first loss of the season. But what can RSL do on the road? I look to history and remember that last year on June 14th we headed into the Home Depot Center to face Chivas side they had never beat on their home turf, but we were able to pick up our first road win of the season and our first win over Chivas at the HDC. Can RSL turn their season around once again and make a little history in the match?

Of course they can, and I believe they will get their road win of the season and break out of their 7 match funk, while ending LA’s 10 match unbeaten streak. So I have to pick RSL to win, and I am going to pick the score line that was the result of our road win at HDC almost one year ago 1-0 on a goal by Clint Mathis.

Other Matches

Chicago 2 - DC United 2
New York 0 - Toronto 1
Houston 2 - FC Dallas 1
New England 1 - KC 1
San Jose 0 - Seattle 2
Chivas 2 - Columbus 2

OFF MY SOAPBOX
‘Audentis Fortuna Juvat”

This entry was posted on June 13, 2009 at 4:57 pm and is filed under The soapbox. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response or trackback from your own site.