What will 2009 bring for Real Salt Lake
With a couple matches under their belt at Rio Tinto Stadium, will 2009 see RSL continue their incredible hot streak at home? In 2008 Real Salt Lake only lost once at RES a 1-0 loss to Chivas in the last match played on the hill. RSL also lost one match at Rio Tinto, the 1-0 loss to the New York Red Bulls in Western Conference Finals, most fans had to be happy with the fact that we got 4 matches at Rio Tinto instead of two in 2008.
Expectations are high for 2009, RSL will be the host team for the 2009 MLS All Star match (still waiting on an announcement who the MLS All Stars will face) and with a majority of the 2008 roster still intact will fans get to watch a team that is a contender? Gone are Nathan Sturgis, taken in the expansion draft and Dema Kovalenko is gone to LA in exchange for 2011 draft pick and allocation money, while a few others were simply released: Fabian Espindola, Kenny Deuchar, Dustin Kirby, Kenny Cutler, and Nik Besagno. A few new faces have been added via the draft: Jean Alexandre in the first round, Raphael Cox in the 4th round, also added in the 4th round was Futhi Bhembe but he has been released. Some other new faces have shown up as trialists during the preseason, probably the biggest is Luis Miguel Escalada, but names like Lionel St. Preux, Carlos Salazar and others have come and most have gone. Real will need to get down to 24 players with the new league roster rules and here are the names that I expect to see on the opening day roster:
- Nick Rimando-GK
- Chris Seitz-GK
- Kyle Reynish-GK
- Chris Wingert-D
- Nat Borchers-D
- Jamison Olave-D
- Ian Joy-D
- Tony Beltran-D
- David Horst-D
- Kyle Beckerman-M
- Javier Morales-M
- Clint Mathis-M
- Jean Alexandre-M
- Robbie Russell-M
- Alex Nimo-M
- Brennan Tennelle-M
- Will Johnson-M
- Andy Williams-M
- Raphael Cox-M
- Yura Movsisyan-F
- Robbie Findley-F
- Tino Nunez-F
- Luis Escalada-F
- ????
2009 Expectations for the West
Well just before New Year’s I set my expectations for the team with a 20% improvement in draws and wins and if those two addition wins and draws happen then RSL will end with a 12-6-12 record and 48 points which in 2008 would have put RSL in 2nd place in the West and 3rd best overall in MLS. With expansion team Seattle joining the West and some major changes for teams like Houston, LA, and FC Dallas there are a lot of questions, I think the biggest is what will happen with Beck’s and Landycakes in LA? If they lose both of them, it will free up almost 40% of LA’s salary cap and allow them to look for some talent to start the rebuilding process, but given that the international transfer window is closed until summer can LA survive long enough to get some help or will they end up missing the playoffs yet again?
Houston loses the engine that has been the key to their offensive effort for longer than the team has been in Texas, without DeRo (now in Toronto) can Ricardo Clark fill the big shoes? Can Clark stay out of trouble all season? Will Ching find a partner up front in Kei Karmara, or will someone else step up to replace the 7 DeRo goals and the 4 Jaqua goals? Can the 41 year old Pat Onstad continue to be a top MLS keeper, can he repeat his 2008 1.03 GAA? I think the Houston reign at the top of the West is over, but who will take over the Western Conference Crown?
I think it comes down to three teams, Chivas who have finished second the past two years, FC Dallas who have reworked their roster and could see a ton of offensive production from Kenny Cooper and Jeff Cunningham up front, and newly added Dave van den Bergh who had his most productive MLS season in 2008 with 7 goals and 5 assists. The biggest question is can Andre Rocha become the midfield captain and creative spark that FC Dallas will need?
Chivas is hoping to have a healthy year, Razov underwent off season surgery, Esky should be healthy, Sacha Kljestan’s much rumored transfer to Europe didn’t happen, will Raphael Wicky get more than 138 minutes of playing time, and can Jorge Flores make a bigger impact in 2009?
I think RSL wins a very tight Western conference with 48 points, FC Dallas finishes second with 44, Chivas get 43 points for third and San Jose moves out of the cellar and into 4th with 40 points and the West gets 4 teams into the playoffs.
How will it happen for RSL?
Real Salt Lake’s 2009 season looks like it will come down to how well Robbie Findley and Yura Movsisyan play, with neither player hitting the 1500 minute mark in 2008 at least one if not both of them will probably be required to play at least 2300-2400 minutes in 2009. RSL have only had one player ever score more than 10 goals in a season, Jeff Cunningham’s 16 goals in 2006 came from 2404 minutes of playing time. If we take the 2008 numbers for Robbie and Yura and simply do a little math, if both players get 2000 minutes of play in 2009 then Yura should score 11 goals and Robbie should put in 8 goals. If Yura gets 2404 minutes like Jeff did in 2006 then his total should be 13 goals, if Robbie should happen to get 2404 minutes his total should be 10. It is clear if RSL is to repeat their run of 2008 that one of these two player will need to become the 2nd player in RSL history to score 10 or more goals in 2009.
Despite the cynics Jason and Garth have proven to know what they’re doing Will that streak of wise moves continue? If Jean Alexandre becomes a starting player and contributes with both goals and assists and Luis Escalada gets his fitness issues worked out and becomes a force off the bench in support of Yura and Robbie. Then we will know that the massive changes of 2007 were not luck but well thought out moves by the RSL staff.
I do think some of the moves made last year will also pay off even bigger in 2009, I think Robbie Russell again proves to be a valuable asset to the team with his ability to play solidly both on defense and in the midfield, Will Johnson not only uses the 2008 season as a launching pad for a huge 2009 MLS season but his hard work and effort lands him a starting role with the Canadian National Team. One big question is what role will Clint Mathis play in 2009, he saw action in 11 matches in 2008 and RSL went 4-3-4 in those matches and while he did not get a goal or assist, the grit and veteran savy added bite to the RSL attack.
Will there be a midseason move? Will there be a RSL DP? How will hosting the 2009 MLS All Star Match and the USMNT vs. El Salvador impact the team, well both of those matches will almost be sell outs and lead to more season ticket sales, adding cash to the coffers, but more importantly adding huge energy for players, staff, and fans.
I expect that opposing teams will find that playing on the pristine grass of Rio Tinto is no more friendly than the horrible turf of RES, as players and fans turn RSL’s home pitch advantage into one of the most difficult places for visitors to get points. Can RSL be perfect at home? That is a big task for any team but if the 4 matches of 2008 are any example of what the future holds, fortress Tinto could be a dungeon for MLS opponents.
OFF MY SOAPBOX
This entry was posted on March 1, 2009 at 1:33 am and is filed under The soapbox. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response or trackback from your own site.