Real Salt Lake vs. New York – Historic Moment Pending
November 15, 2008 by f4denz.
The MLS match preview
Red Bulls set for role reversal? Web.mlsnet.com
It’s one thing to rise up and smite the giant. But what if you suddenly morph into the giant?
The New York Red Bulls engineered one of Major League Soccer’s all-time stunners last week. The men from Giants Stadium didn’t just beat Houston down at Robertson Stadium, they clobbered the Dynamo in the return leg to claim the home-and-away Western Conference Semifinal Series.
My Matchups and Keys to the match
So as I have read around the web and seen what many of the soccer experts and pundits have to say, I worry, too many of them have jumped on the Real Salt Lake bandwagon. Here is a brief tally of the predictions online (not all of them but the ones I could find quickly and easily):
mlsfanblog.com Real Salt Lake 1- New York 0
soccernet.espn.go.com No score but picks RSL to win
goal.com No score but picks RSL to win
yahoo.com No score picking New York to win
mlsnet.com No score but gives edge to Real Salt Lake
You know when you take 5 top sources and 4 of them pick RSL that something could really go wrong. Both of the Lalas brothers picked RSL and that scares me more than all the rest combined. But almost everyone is focusing on the Morales vs. Angel matchup, but to me that one is a lot less important that the way RSL will have to use Will Johnson and Dema Kovalenko to support the backline in defending against Dane Richards and Dave van den Bergh. I trust Olave won’t fall down this time when Angel tries to get around him, but it is well known that Dema did not want to leave the Red Bulls and will be out to prove a point to them. I really am looking forward to see the battle between Johnson and Richards, two guys with great pace and never say die attitudes, and I believe the winner of this battle will do a huge amount in getting his team to the MLS Cup.
Let’s take a minute to look at the team stats, this season New York scored 42 goals on their way to a 10-11-9 record, while RSL scored 40 while earning a 10-10-10 record. A bit more telling is the fact that the Red Bulls gave up 48 goals, while RSL gave up just 39, only two teams gave up more goals than New York, DC United with 51 and the LA Galaxy with 62 goals allowed. Real Salt Lake only lost one match at home all year and that was against Chivas on a horrible defensive blunder, while New York won only once on the road, the worst in MLS this year. New York scored a total of 12 goals in their 15 road matches while allowing 28 a more than 2:1 ratio, while RSL only has allowed 10 goals at home all season while scoring 24, if that math holds up this should be a 2-1 RSL victory.
Goalkeepers
In both of the previous meetings this year Jon Conway was in goal for New York, but Saturday they will be relying on Danny Cepero who now has 2 regular season MLS matches and 2 playoff matches of experience. In his two regular season starts he allowed 6 goals against while only making 5 saves, his performance has improved in the playoffs where he has only allowed one goal in the two matches against Houston, he made a total of 7 saves over the two matches. Nick Rimando played every minute of every MLS match for RSL, and in the regular season his GAA was 1.30 with 8 shut outs and he allowed two goals in the series against Chivas while making 4 saves. Danny may be famous for being the only keeper to score in a MLS match, but the 23 year old will be a huge underdog against Rimando who already has a MLS Cup Championship from his days with United.
Defense
While the backline of RSL have had a couple huge mental lapses this season, they are without a doubt one of the reasons that RSL has made it this far and if RSL is to move on to the MLS Cup finals it will have to be and the backs of the defense. Jamison Olave, Nat Borchers have done a great job all year of keeping some of the best strikers in the league in check, and Wingert is a monster (just ask the fans) and if it is Ian Joy or Robbie Russell joining them both have been up to the task all year long and with Rimando they have been a solid unit this season. For New York you have to wonder which backline will show up? They allowed Houston to get a total of 24 shots off in their series, RSL’s defense only allowed 15. The project backline for New York features Kevin Goldthwaite their most experienced defender this year with 28 starts, Andrew Boyens has 16 starts, Chris Leitch 14, and Diego Jimenez just 6 for a total of 64 starts, compared to a backline of Olave, Wingert, Borchers (who have 81 starts between the 3) and Russell would add 7 more, but if Joy is fit to go he would add 18 starts to give RSL a total of 99. If you add in keepers it even gets uglier as the RSL total jumps to 129 and the New York total is just over half that at 66. A clear advantage again goes to RSL on experience and the fact that we allowed 9 fewer goals over the season.
Midfield
The midfield battle will really depend on who New York plays in the middle, I would have to give a clear advantage to Morales and Beckerman (9 goals, 17 assists) over Sassano and Ubiparipovic (1 goal, 2 assists) but on the outside the advantage would appear to go to New York with Richards and van den Bergh (10 goals, 11 assists) over Johnson and Kovalenko (3 goals and 2 assists) but Will Johnson scored his two goals in just 9 matches and Dema missed over 1,000 minutes of action due to injuries this season, when you combine both sets I think a slight advantage goes to RSL with an edge in experience and the ability to create for others. I do think that the matchup with Johnson and Richards will be the key to the match, Will has given 100 percent plus in every match he has played and he is very quick. Dane is just plain fast, and with getting two goals against Houston last weekend will have a lot of confidence. This matchup could cost RSL early, if they let Richards run loose he can score or create, if they mark him too tight they could pick up early yellow cards. Watch this one closely.
Forward
The battle at forward really is interesting and will depend on what choice Jason Kreis makes, for New York it will be Juan Pablo Angel with his 14 goals and 3 assists this year, partnering with John Wolyniec who did not score in his 726 minutes of action this season and only had one assist. We know that Yura Movsisyan will start for RSL with his 7 goals and one assist, but will it be Robbie Findley with 6 goals and 5 assists (and speed), a returning Fabian Espindola who has 5 goals in just 642 minutes this year, or Clint Mathis who has yet to score or get an assist and had just 590 minutes in regular season MLS play? The only way RSL could even keep this one close would be to play Espindola and Yura in the first half and bring on Findley in the second to give a boost of speed, but the likely matching of Mathis and Movsisyan means that a slight advantage goes to New York. I think that Clint could be a real x factor in this match; he loves to show up his former teams. He did it against RSL while playing for Colorado and New York, and if he does it against New York on Saturday, he could be the difference in the match.
Intangibles
RSL has seen their fair share of horrible officiating this season, but Jair Marrufo is supposed to be the best official in MLS. Ricardo Salazar who was so bad in the last match at Rio Tinto against Chivas, has been relegated to the role of 4th official, which is still to close to the action for my liking. At least we can all take comfort that Kevin Stott is not going to be involved in the match at all; there are some miracles in life. I don’t really care if they call the match close or let them play, I only want it to be fair, no team should get an advantage in the match because of the officials.
You have to wonder which bench will make the bigger impact; RSL will have Findley, Williams and Espindola, while New York has Magee, Kandji, and Mendes. I think RSL holds a slight advantage when it comes to what type of difference their bench players can make.
While Jason Kreis got overlook as Coach of the year, the job he has done in working with both young players and veterans has been incredible, to bring this many new players into a team and have them come together to form this tight of a team is impressive. His attack minded lineup and substitutions in the first playoff match was inspirational and genius, it worked well. In the second leg, he took a slightly more defensive approach, but that was pitched in the second half as he replaced defenders with attackers and went back to an aggressive, attacking style of soccer. It was more entertaining to watch and the results speak for themselves, you know you are doing something right when the commentators compliment the series as “some of the best soccer played in MLS this year”. I expect a couple surprises to the lineup, could be Williams and Findley in for Kovalenko and Mathis, which would mean we would have a very creative and quick offensive attack which could expose the New York back line and inexperienced keeper Cepero.
The crowd, all year long RSL has enjoyed great support form their fans, with over 16,000 average attendance for home matches, and some of the more vocal supporter groups in the league, General Manager Garth Lagerwey said it during his comments to the media earlier this week, and he called on the fans to sell out the stadium and to show up wearing Red and create a “Red Rally” so don’t only wear something red, but bring something you can share with the person next to you in case they forget.
My Prediction
Well it shouldn’t surprise anyone that I am going to pick RSL, I think the match will end up 2-1 or 3-1, I think it is close in the first half as both teams have some nerves and try to slow the attacking waves of the opposing side, the first half ends 1-1 on goals by Angel and Movsisyan. The second half is where RSL steps up the pressure and takes advantage of a deeper bench and the altitude and they run New York ragged and goal early in the second half on an incredible shot by Clint Mathis. Then just minutes later they seal the deal on a Javier Morales breakaway and goal that stops young Danny Cepero. The real shame will be that New York fails to take advantage of players like Jorge Rojas and Macoumba Kandji (who looked really good against RSL in October).
History will be made on Saturday night, but it will be too little too late for New York and RSL fans will be waiting for the matchup in LA against the black and yellow Columbus Crew.
OFF MY SOAPBOX