Real Salt Lake vs. Chivas USA part III
October 31, 2008 by f4denz.
Well I never expected a match preview to take 3 posts, but this is the first time in the playoffs, a lot is at stake and when it comes to facing off against Chivas there is a lot of history and info. Anyhow here is my match preview and prediction, I hope you enjoy it.
Enough of others, here are my thoughts
OFFICAL MATCH AND SERIES GUIDE
So there are a number of really interesting matchups in this one, but the biggest thing for me is the RSL defense, can we close down a hot Eskandarian (3 goals in the last 5 Chivas matches) and Ante Razov who in his career has been a real thorn in RSL’s side with 4 goals and 4 assists while playing for Chivas. The last time these two teams faced off it was a defensive mistake that cost RSL the match as Borchers and Rimando ran into each other and Esky waltzed by their fallen bodies to put an easy shot into the back of the net. Clearly it will take a big effort from all 4 defenders and whoever starts at d-mid for RSL, which I believe will be Kyle Beckerman, despite the published lineup in the match guide. When I asked Coach Kreis if he was going to start Andy Williams to give RSL an offensive spark from the start of the match vs. brining him on later in the match, well Jason didn’t say anything but there aren’t too many questions you can ask him that make him smile the way he did when I asked this one.
The Chivas defense is weekend without Vaughn who is out with an ankle injury, and with a 39 year old Claudio Suarez, there will be a lot of work for Carey Talley and Shavar Thomas. Mendoza tends to push forward a lot but might be forced to play further back in support of the Chivas defense to slow down a much improved RSL offensive attack. In their last two matches the Chivas defense has given up 3 goals and has a loss and a tie in those two matches, after their recent 4 match winning streak when their defense had given up only 1 goal in those matches. For RSL the defense has given up a single goal in three matches and gotten a win and two draws. I think this one will be a draw as both defenses have performed well, but suffered occasional meltdowns, for Chivas that is the two matches where they gave up 4 goals in their last 11 matches. Real Salt Lake’s meltdowns are well recorded but I think recently giving up the two late goals to New England is the clearest example. I think this one is a draw.
I think the battle in the midfield will be important as RSL’s midfield looks to rebound from a horrible performance in Colorado, Jason called it the worst match of the year, but I disagree. It was bad, but nothing was worse than the 4-1 defeat at DC United, but I think his point was clear that RSL would need to control possession against Chivas much better than they did against the Rapids. I think the play of Williams and Will (Johnson) on the outside will be crucial as they work with Joy and Wingert moving forward from the backline. Andy brings great vision and creativity, while Johnson brings speed and a never say die attitude and work ethic that is impressive for such a young player. I have been critical of Javier Morales a lot this year, I believe he is so much better than what we have seen in some matches, and as a big time player who was rewarded with a big contract extension Javi has to show up in the big matches, and this one will be huge. There really isn’t anyone in the Chivas midfield that should be able to match up against Javi, so he should have chances to shot and to create opportunities for Mathis and Yura.
Chivas brings Harris, Nagamura, Marsch and Sasha Kljestan as their starting midfield and while it is a talented bunch, the biggest threat is Sasha who recently has had stints with US National team, both as part of the 2008 Olympics and the 2010 World Cup qualifying. I expect that they will try to keep possession and work up the sides using Sasha’s speed and Atiba’s speed and size, can they create good chances for Esky and Ante? I think a slight advantage goes to RSL, especially if they give Andy the start.
Up front we match up is really even as both teams have hot players and veterans that can turn a match with a single touch. Yura not only put RSL in the playoffs with his 90th minute goal against the Rapids last weekend, but his 4 goals in the last 5 matches is even hotter than Esky’s 3 goals in 5 matches, so I give RSL a very slight edge in this matchup. RSL has seen enough of Ante Razov over the years, but so far this season he has 0 goals and 0 assists against RSL, in big part due to injuries and RSL knowing how dangerous he can be. Ever since his return I have been waiting to see a bit of Cletus, but after talking with Clint on Tuesday, I realize that it just isn’t going to happen. He still seems to enjoy the banter he has always had with fans, both the good and the bad, but this is a very different guy than 2005, in fact he seems very different than even last year. Perhaps it was getting married, or the birth of Maximus on August 4th (the reason he wears 84), perhaps it was the long talk he had with Jason and Garth before joining RSL, but whatever it is I like the new Clint and the attitude of “Now I am not worried about looking pretty, but busy busting my ass to play well”. Each week we have seen Clint get closer and closer to scoring, and he is forcing defense to pay attention to him and that creates space for Yura and others, but this week I expect that you might just see Clint get on the scoreboard. So while Chivas might get a slight advantage, I think Clint will have a bigger impact than Ante.
The matchup of keepers is an easy one Chivas lost Brad Guzan early in the season as he went to the EPL, and Dan Kennedy took over the keeping duties and has posted a 1.03 GAA average in his 9 matches. Impressive for a young guy, but after getting a red card in the Houston match last weekend Chivas will have to rely on Zach Thornton in goal. Zach has played in 8 matches this year for Chivas and has a 1.80 GAA average, he is a longtime MLS vet, who has suffered this season with a hamstring injury and will be susceptible to the RSL attack. For RSL the keeper is the rock Nick Rimando, who has started every match, played every minute of the MLS season for RSL in 2008. Nick has a 1.30 GAA and only 5 keepers had a better GAA, the 8 clean sheets is 5th in MLS this year. RSL gets the advantage in this area.
I think RSL will come out with all guns blazing and try to get an early goal rather than give up the early goal like they have in their last 3 matches, and I think a charge up home crowd getting their first taste of the playoffs, and another match at Rio Tinto will help the team to put forth another solid effort much like they did against Dallas two weeks ago, and I think the result will be the same a 3-1 RSL win.
OFF MY SOAPBOX
and see you at the match
Real Salt Lake vs. Chivas USA part II
October 31, 2008 by f4denz.
Well yesterday I took a look at the history between Real Salt Lake and Chivas and a quick review of this seasons matches between the two side, and now I am going to take a look at the frenemies (a term I am stealing from Brian Dunesth) players that used to be teammates but not play for an opposing team. Then we will look predictions from pundits and how they think Real Salt Lake will do in the playoffs, and we will wrap it up with my preview of the match and my prediction of who will come out on top on Saturday.
But first let’s talk about a total injustice, how exactly did MLS come up with their list of nominees for season awards? You are telling me that not a single RSL player was deserving of making any of these lists? Read the list on ussoccerplayers.typepad.com, but I am unsure how Kinnear who lead a very talented team, or Frank Yallop who lead an expansion team to worst record in MLS this year be considered ahead of Jason Kreis for coach of a year? How did Blanco with his 7 goals and 11 assists get a MVP nod in front of Javi Morales with 6 goals and 15 assists? Then I remembered that the same people who picked the “comish” picks for the All Star match, also probably picked the award nominees, what does RSL have to do in order to get some respect?
Frenemies
Well if you look at the projected lineup for Chivas you will see faces that last year were part of the RSL team and often in starting roles, including one time captain Carey Talley who had 58 starts and saw action 60 times for RSL. In that time Carey scored 6 goals and had 9 assists in just over 5,000 minutes of playing time. Next up is Atiba Harris who at RSL played everything from striker to defender and in his 25 starts and 43 matches played scored 4 goals and 2 assists, but is probably best known for his very physical style of play. When RSL traded away golden boot winner Jeff Cunningham for TFC’s Alecko Eskandarian many fans wondered what Jason Kreis was thinking as this was the first move made by the team in the Kreis era. Esky only saw action in 17 matches and all of them were starts, but he was only able to score 1 goal and 2 assists.
But each of these players were given another chance to start over and with Chivas each of them have done well, but none better than Esky, who in just 656 minutes of action has racked up 5 goals and two assists and is tied for most goals scored by a Chivas player and two of those goals were game winners. Not far behind Esky is the performance of Atiba Harris who has racked up 3 goals and 5 assists, and again two of Atiba’s goals were match winners. Even Carey Talley has found his scoring touch and in just 16 matches for Chivas he has a goal and two assists. It is clear that without the former RSL players that Chivas would have had a very hard time getting to 2nd place in the Western Conference as they account for 9 of Chivas’ 40 goals and 9 of their 40 assists, so just under 25% of the Chivas offense comes from the 3 former RSL players.
It will be first time these guys get to see Rio Tinto Stadium and I am betting that much like Cunny, Watson and Coach Ellinger were a couple weeks ago, they will be blown away by how nice the stadium is. Shame that none of them are likely to get a warm welcome from the fans or their former teammates, as Kyle Beckerman told me earlier this week “You just play, the friendships are off and for 90 minutes it is a battle and you do what you can, you show a little more respect, but you are not friends on the pitch.”.
Pundits and predictions
Rio Tinto is the difference ussoccerplayers.typepad.com
Can a new stadium really get a team over the hump? I’ve had the Chivas USA-Real Salt Lake match up circled as an upset special ever sense the final standings finally took shape. Not that I am down on Chivas. They have some nice attacking players in Sacha Kljestan, Atiba Harris, Ante Razov and Alecko Eskandarian that are capable of causing any defense in this league fits. Still, in the back of my mind I just see this Salt Lake team making a run past the first round.
Dynamo still the team to beat in the West soccernet.espn.go.com
Chivas USA vs. Real Salt Lake
After overcoming three years of futility to reach the postseason for the first time in their history, the big question is: Will RSL take the “happy to be here approach” or will their breakthrough allow them to scale even loftier heights?…..
Outlook: As so often happens with No. 2 versus No. 3-seed matchups, there isn’t much separating the two teams, but the resilience Preki’s men showed all season should carry the day. RSL showed some fortitude of its own getting the needed result in Colorado last weekend, but its defense hasn’t recorded a shutout since late August, while Chivas has kept things tight in the back. Look for the Goats to prevail by the odd goal.
A look at the MLS playoffs kansascity.com
No. 2 Chivas USA vs. No. 3 Real Salt Lake
•Records: Chivas 12-11-7, Salt Lake 10-10-10
•Top scorers: Chivas has three players tied with five, Salt Lake’s Yura Movsisyan (seven goals)
•Goalies: Chivas’ Zach Thornton (1.80 goals-against average), Salt Lake’s Nick Rimando (1.30 GAA).
•Outlook: Movsisyan has blossomed into the dependable goal-scorer the Wizards envisioned when they drafted him last year before trading him. His late goal against Colorado gave Salt Lake its playoff spot in improbable fashion. Salt Lake finished the year 3-0-2. Chivas will be hurt by the red-card suspension of goalie Dan Kennedy. He’ll miss game one and Thornton, a 13-year veteran, will take his place. Chivas will need Thornton to step up.
•Prediction: Real Salt Lake 3, Chivas USA 1
Previewing the MLS Playoffs with Frank Glase nj.com
No. 2 Chivas USA (12-11-7) vs. No. 3 Real Salt Lake (10-10-10)
Saturday at Real Salt Lake, 6 p.m.
Nov. 8 at Chivas, 10:30 p.m.
CHIVAS USA WILL WIN IF … it can take advantage of Real Salt Lake’s first playoff appearance by jumping on a nervous team early in the game. And the club has the experience up front to do it. Ante Razov (Chicago, 1998) and Alecko Eskandarian (D.C. United, 2004) have won MLS Cups before, while Sacha Kljestan (five goals, seven assists) is one of the best midfielders in the league.
REAL SALT LAKE WILL WIN IF … it can take advantage of Chivas’ shaky goalkeeping situation. Dan Kennedy (4-3-0) and Zach Thornton (2-3-3) have split time since Brad Guzan left for England in midseason. Thornton, who also won the title with the Fire in 1998, gets the start in the first leg because Kennedy is serving a one-game, red-card suspension.
ONE MORE THING: Both teams entered the league as expansion clubs in 2005, with Real Salt Lake (5-22-5) having a slightly better debut than Chivas (4-22-6). But since then, Chivas has made the playoffs three straight years with a 37-27-28 record while RSL, with a 26-38-28 record, has not. Chivas won two of the three games this year, although each won once on the road.
PREDICTION: Chivas USA
McCarthy’s Musing: A Path to the Holy Grail goal.com
2) Chivas USA v. (3) Real Salt Lake
The national media have treated Real Salt Lake’s playoff berth as some sort of lost puppy miraculously found after being lost in the woods for a couple of weeks. As if what RSL did during the previous 30 weeks – discounting a wretched performance in Colorado to finish the season – didn’t matter.
Repeat until admission: Real Salt Lake deserves to be in the playoffs.
Unlike most teams in this league, Jason Kreis’ side knows exactly what it needs to do and knows how to do it. Funnel the ball to Javier Morales and watch him create in the attacking third. Let others do the running for him. Keep it tight in the midfield so the outside midfielders don’t turn into wingers and restrict the fullbacks’ space. Keep it tight in the back and don’t give away cheap goals.
The tactics will work to some extent in this series. The Goats will have problems containing Morales and Yura Movsisyan because Jesse Marsch isn’t Pablo Mastroeni and the Chivas USA defense is woefully slow
But everything Kreis installed is founded upon this water-tight defense. That’s where I think RSL loses this series.
The problem is in the middle. Nat Borchers went from Best XI candidate to something else entirely over the past couple of months. Ditto for Jamison Olave. What was once a rocky-hard core has turned into the creamy nougat center opposing attackers love to munch upon. One shutout in the last three months of the season and 12 goals in the past 8 games. Not horrific, but not good enough at playoff time.
If it turns into a battle to see who will score more goals rather than one about who will concede less, Sacha Kljestan’s team is generally going to win. Especially when the opposition hasn’t been here before.
Prediction: Chivas USA
Well that went longer than I thought
OK I didn’t expect this post to be this involved so I am going to save my preview and prediction for later and just post this as is.
OFF MY SOAPBOX