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Archive for October 14, 2008

What a win would mean to Real Salt Lake

October 14, 2008 by f4denz.

Beat Dallas and RSL is almost guaranteed a playoff spot

All season I have been saying that I thought Real Salt Lake would need 42 points to ensure that they make the playoffs, but it looks like I was wrong, 40 points would be enough for RSL to lock up 3^rd place in the West (since they face the two teams chasing them the 4 points would come at the cost of Dallas and Colorado). I have also been following the percentages from sportsclubstats.com, and no week will have a bigger swing factor that this weekend’s matchup between RSL and FC Dallas, just look at these numbers:

Team	RSL win	Dallas win	Draw
Real Salt Lake	93.9	29.6	53.5
FC Dallas	15.0	80.6	38.5
Colorado	26.9	29.3	38.1
New York	63.4	60.9	62.3
Kansas City	64.5	63.3	65.6
DC United	19.5	17.6	21.3

So as the standings sit today, RSL would be in as the 3^rd place team in the West and it is a good thing as RSL would lose the tiebreaker with the other two teams with 36 points based on 0-1-1 record against both New York and Kansas City. Today RSL has a 59.7% chance of making the playoffs, so without taking into account any of the other matches, a win would proved a 30 point improvement and a loss would see the chances drop 30 points.

Hopefully the pressure of the match will be the only thing on RSL’s minds, no more worry about the opening match at Rio Tinto, an extra week to prepare to play on the grass, no more overwhelming media attention because of a building, the only thing left for the players and staff of RSL is focus on beating Dallas. We already know that one of the key weapons in the midfield for Dallas will be out because of yellow card suspension; there will be no Andre Rocha (3 goals and 8 assists). Dallas also plays a midweek friendly against Tigres, a team RSL faced off against on my birthday back on Sept. 3^rd. Who in their right mind schedules an international friendly during the last month of the MLS season? Sorry, but fans in Dallas will probably see very little of their starting lineup on Tuesday night.

I do have to give Kenny Cooper a little credit, all summer long he was snubbed by the USMNT despite his incredible performance for his team, and now that the US has locked up a spot in the next round of World Cup qualifying, he finally gets a call up. Kenny showed a ton of class when he said “thanks, but no thanks” pointing to the importance of the weekend’s matchup with RSL (read the full account on SoccerbyIves.com).

A story worth reading

So if you watched the USMNT play against Cuba on Saturday, you heard mention of a couple players from Cuba who had gone missing. This is nothing unusual as almost every time Cuban teams play in the US, several players will take a great risk and put their own safety as well as their families by trying to defect. Now you may have heard from some people about how the nation of Cuba is a wonderful place, guys like Michael Moore will make movies telling us that we should embrace socialism and reject the freedoms that we have here in America. Well Michael, I suggest you read this story about Reinier Alcantara. It once again proves that no matter the turmoil in our economy, or anything else that some people try to put down America and the freedoms we enjoy. I for one wish Reinier well and hope that he gets his chance at the American dream, but just having a chance of that is more than he ever could have wished for on the island paradise of Cuba.