4 matches could boost or sink Real Salt Lake’s playoff hopes
October 2, 2008 by f4denz.
It would have been far too easy to just look at the 4 remaining matches for Real Salt Lake, if they can run the table it would almost ensure them of their first ever playoff appearance. So let’s take a look at 4 other matches that have some huge impact on the RSL bid for the post season, interestingly enough 3 of these matchups take place this weekend and will provide for a busy couple days for RSL fans.
San Jose at FC Dallas
With San Jose dropping 3 points at home against RSL, their playoff chances have been crippled, but will they show up tonight in Dallas and play for pride? If they get back on their guns and pull out a win or draw it would almost kill the FC Dallas chances for the post season, according to sportsclubstats a win by San Jose would drop Dallas to just a 24% chance of making the playoffs. After FC Dallas faces San Jose, their schedule is Toronto at home on the 11th, at RSL on the 18th, and at the Galaxy on the 26th. Dallas currently is just one point behind RSL in the West and that final playoff spot, one has to assume that they will beat TFC and the Galaxy, and get beat when they come to Salt Lake, so tonight’s matchup is very important to the RSL playoff hopes. If I am right Dallas would end up with 39 points plus whatever happens tonight (I believe 42 is the magic number to make the playoffs).
Chivas at DC United
Chivas is two points ahead of RSL and sitting in second place in the West, while DC United is just one point behind RSL and fighting for a playoff spot. A win by Chivas would almost guarantee them a playoff spot (96%) and virtually eliminate DC United (18%). For RSL it becomes a matter of are you trying to move up the Western conference standing or are you OK with finishing 4th in the West as long as you make the playoffs? DC United has struggled with their very busy schedule and some very long international trips as part of their group play in the CONCACAF Champions League, when you add that into their US Open Cup Championship, poor United has played 15 matches since the All Star break, and after losing last night to Cruz Azul they still have 7 matches left to play this month. That is a big mountain to climb for any team, and after the match with Chivas, United will finish their MLS season at Houston on 12th, home against New England on the 16th, and wrap up at Columbus on the 26th.
Chivas also is facing a tough task after this match, they face Western conference opponents in their final 3 matches: at San Jose on the 11th, at home against Colorado on the 19th, and they wrap up the season at home against Houston on the 25th. I can see the goats winning at United, drawing at San Jose, beating Colorado, and drawing against Houston as both teams rest their starters, that would mean that that Chivas would end with 44 points which could be good enough for second place in the West.
Houston at Colorado
First place vs. third place, defending MLS champions vs. Crapids, 40 points vs. 34 points. So there is no way I see RSL catching Houston, so I will be cheering for them to win their final 4 MLS matches because their winning could help RSL secure a playoff spot, no match could have a bigger impact this weekend than this one. If Houston wins then they are in the playoffs, a loss wouldn’t drop them far (99.5%), but for the Rapids a loss would drop them to just a 42% chance, but a win would boost their chance to 80%. This match alone has almost a 7% swing factor on the RSL playoff chances (52.9% if Colorado wins and 58.8% if Houston wins, a draw would give us a 56.6% chance).
Colorado has all their remaining matches against Western conference foes, after facing Houston they will go to LA to face the Galaxy (see details below), then on the19th they are in LA to face Chivas, and then they get the pleasure of facing RSL in their final matchup on the 26th at the Dick.
Colorado at Galaxy
On October 12 Colorado(34 points) will face off against the Galaxy(29 points) at the Home Depot Center, even if the Galaxy win this weekend against the Crew they would still have less than a 20% chance of making the playoffs. It would take a total collapse by not one but two of the teams in the Western Conference ahead of them in the standings, but the Galaxy would have to do something they really seem unlikely to do, win, not only win but win their final 4 matches which would give them 41 points. Considering that LA has only one win since the All Star match, I simply think that is impossible and not going to happen. Colorado on the other hand sit in 3rd place with 34 points, they are currently ahead of RSL in the standings based on their +1 goal differential.
All of Colorado’s remaining matches are against the West, Houston, LA, Chivas, and the season finale with RSL, I expect that Colorado will get one win, 1 loss, and two draws out of their final 4 matches, which would have them end the season with 39 points and I believe just out of the playoffs.
RSL’s chances
Listen it is easy, RSL can remove all doubt by getting a result on Saturday and winning their final 3 matches, but I would much rather see a win on Saturday against New England to provide just a little bit of slack in a very tight race. A win puts RSL’s chances of making the playoffs at 75.4%, while a draw would leave us with just a 51.5% chance, every match and every point is critical at this time of year but if RSL can find a way to get 10 points in their final 4 matches, they would end the season with 44 points and I believe that is enough to not only make the playoffs but finish in 3rd place in the West, losing out to Chivas based on our 1-2-0 record against them.
Lots of matches to watch and pay attention to for RSL fans, so keep your eyes and ears open to not only the RSL matches but the four matches above that are going to be critical to the playoff chances of RSL.
OFF MY SOAPBOX