May 21, 2008 by f4denz.

DC United @ TFC

Well this matchup between the bottom two teams in the East should be entertaining, but I would not expect a high scoring match. DC United has one goal in their last three matches (all loses), and TFC has scored just one goal in their last two (both ties). So TFC has an edge in momentum, but when these two sides faced off earlier in the season, it was DC United who dominated and put a 4-1 whipping on the boys from Canada. The projected line ups are:

This is a very different TFC than what United faced earlier in the year, they have added a number of new international players and by the look of the line up two that have made a great impact already in their time in Toronto will be in the match Guevara and Ricketts bring offensive punch and creativity to the lineup and with Robert becoming the on the field leader of the team, TFC is a much improved side in week 9 vs. week 2.

I am going to pick TFC to win tonight 2-0 over DC United who really are trying to figure it out. Offical Game Guide

Same MLS town, Same MLS name, very different team

So for the first time the team formely known as the San Jose Earthquakes, now the Houston Dynamo will be facing off against the new version of the Quakes, it will be interesting to see how the fans react on Thursday evening as these two sides walk out for introductions. San Jose has really struggled to score, they only have 4 goals in 7 matches and they have a number of injuries that will impact their roster (Ayres, Glinton, and Philippe are all out and Garcia is probable), they have only scored in two of their matches a 2-0 win against the Rapids and a 3-2 defeat at the hands of the Columbus Crew. Houston seems to have found their scoring edge by putting 2-1 victories up the last two weeks against Colorado and Chicago. Here are the starting lineups:

While the emotions will be high on both sides as the match kicks off at Buck Shaw Stadium, Houston has too much talent and I think they will put two into the back of the net again. The only question is can San Jose do enough to get on the scoreboard? Having to play Ned Grabavoy at striker tells you how much trouble the Quakes are in, I think they simply do not have a chance. 2-0 Houston. Official Game Guide

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May 21, 2008 by f4denz.

So we are past the quarter way mark of the 2008 season and we know a couple things in a single table RSL is currently in 12^th place with just DC United and expansion side San Jose behind them, if you look at just the Western Conference standings we are in 6^th place with only the Earthquakes behind us. There is one upside to being in the West this season, all the teams suck and RSL is only 4 points out of first place, and had they won their match last week against Colorado, they actually would have been in first place.

But to know if the first full season with Jason Kreis as head coach and Garth Lagerwey as general manager is a success we have to compare the results both to RSL’s first three seasons, but against the rest of the league. I am going to do this by looking straight at the numbers, and then offering a couple opinions.

I will also offer my season grades for players and staff, kinda a mid term report, I will include what each of them need to do in order to improve their grade, this will come later in the week.

The Numbers

So in major league soccer the numbers that matter are your record and your total number of points, but goals for and goals against also are important, so lets take a look at the numbers. So through 8 games here are the numbers:

So in the stat that matter most, RSL is doing better than the past two years at this point of the season, but trailing our expansion effort. Remember the first year where we all expected great things after a good start, but in the final 24 matches we only won two more, and had 5 and 10 game losing streaks, the writing was on the wall but we got one more full season of John Ellinger, and we did see an improve in 2006 and our 39 points were only two shy of the final playoff spot in the Western Conference, but we finished worst in the West. 2007 was supposed to be the season, so said Dave Checketts as he promised the playoffs, but our slow start caused the end of Ellinger era, and ushered into the reign of Kreis. Jason faced an uphill struggle and the team was just 1-6-4 between the change and the all star break (1-9-6 overall at the break), but things got better after the All Star game and RSL went 5-7-3. Our longest losing streak was 4 games, but our next longest streak was 2 which happened several times, we finished dead last in the West for the second straight year.

The reality is that if the rest of the season is a follows the trend of the start of the season we will end up with 30 points, 2^nd best in team history and keeping our 1 point per game current effort. If we improve by 25% to a 1.25 point per game average we would end up with 36 points probably not enough to make the playoffs, but an increase to 1.50 would see us end with 41 points and in the shortened 30 game schedule that should be enough to make the playoffs, both Chicago and KC made it with 40 points last season. This is possible; here are what I would expect to be the 2 most likely scenarios, a 9-7-6 record or a 10-9-3 record for the rest of the season.

New Faces in New Places

That brings us to this season, 20 new faces from the start of 2007 to the start of 2008, and everyone knows that many new players will take some time to come together as a team. We have seen moments of great play like the 4-0 United match, good play in a lot of matches, and a couple of debacles (Chivas 3-1 defeat, United 4-1 defeat, and last weeks 2-0 loss at Colorado), which is really typical of a team with a lot of different players in new roles and new lineups. We have seen tactical mistakes made, and admitted by coach Kreis, but we have seen him make good adjustments as well (the Chicago match, the 2^nd half at TFC, and adjusting against LA), this again seems typical as we try to figure out what players work best together, dealing with some injuries. While some players have been living up to expectations or even exceeding them (Beckerman, Kovalenko, Morales, Borchers), others have been average (Espindola, Wingert, Rimando), and a few would have to be classified as disappointments (Talley, Joy, Deuchar, Findley, Movsisyan) not that it is all their fault. I will go further into depth later in the week with my player report card.

Off the pitch

Wow considering how the front office has operated in the past, I consider this to be one of the highlights of the season. The stadium is moving forward and looking better each and everyday. New blood in the sales department has actually lead to some great sized crowds, and they are much more responsive than in years past. Merchandise is steady, but lacks any real variety or flash, it is just the standard league stuff that every team has and more in line with the minimum as opposed to years past when the variety was better but it was always hit and miss. Marketing has taken a couple of hits with the failure to find a host for the weekly coach’s radio show, very little advertising, and with the recent Real Madrid cancellation, the black eyes continue. Operations has finally announced their plans for the relocation to the new stadium, in fact that announcement came today:

Plans for the Relocation Guide and Relocation Event have been set in motion!  By next week Stadium Relocation Guide’s will be printed and sent out to all of our Royal Club Members. 

This Guide will include:

–Your priority number
–Relocation selection time and date (choosing your seats)
–Answers to frequently asked questions
–A color-coded pricing map
–Ways to contact us regarding changes to your account and any questions you may have. 

If you need to make any changes to your account, (address, phone number, etc.) please let us know as soon as possible by e-mailing clientexperience@realsaltlake.com or calling us at (801) 924-8585 and asking for a Fan Relations Representative.

We are targeting June 23-27 for our relocation event.  If nothing else, this is an advanced notice to put these dates on your calendar.  The actual date of your appointment will depend upon your priority number. You WILL NOT be allowed to choose before your scheduled time.  If you are unable to attend you will be given the option to send a person in your place to choose your seats, or you can come to the event after your scheduled time (subject to availability, seats will be assigned at next open time slot).  We apologize if this is rushed notice for any of you, but this week was selected due to time constraints that our game and construction schedules have put on us.  We thank you all in advance for your support and understanding throughout this process, and cannot wait to get this special event underway.

What: Royal Club Member Relocation Event
When: Depends on Priority Number (Will be between June 23-27)
Where: RSL Stadium in Sandy, Ardell Brown Building (Construction HQ). Details/ Directions and parking information to follow.

So I have to say again I have been impressed by the efforts of the front office, better viewing parties, better stadium operations. Let’s hope they keep it up.

Expectations

So I have been way to often accused of being a optimist when it comes to things regarding RSL, but I would rather hope for the best, than spend my time wondering how or when things will go in the tank. I expect that RSL will make at least one major roster move in the next 4-6 weeks, and I also think RSL will look at the international market for a real DP (thinking attacking midfielder). I believe that we will get one mid table European team and two teams from Central/South America as our friendlies, a far cry from Real Madrid. I am going to go out on a real limb, I think we win next week at Columbus in the Lamar Hunt US Open Cup, as most teams play more bench players and reserves, I just wish there was TV coverage. I think we end up in 3^rd or 4^th place in the West, Chivas will have real problems as players miss time for international play, Dallas is a one trick pony and Cooper is simply not good enough to carry that much of a burden, San Jose is showing signs that they really are an expansion team and they will struggle all year long.

The two questions for me in the west are will Houston continue to struggle or have they found their defending champion form, and is Colorado going to be able to stay on top? I think Houston is got enough talent, but will suffer as they lose players for international duty for the start of World Cup qualifying, without DeRo, they will struggle. Colorado looked really bad last week in their win over RSL, but they have some great depth and their younger players who started getting playing time early in the year looked really good. LA is got the ability to win every game, they showed that last weekend as they simply embarrassed FC Dallas, it appears that they have found a way to stop teams from scoring as many goals and lets face it the league is going to do whatever they have to (another DP exemption, looking the other way on salary cap violations), all in order to not only ensure that LA makes the playoffs, but do well in them.

RSL will play their final two home matches of the regular MLS season in the new stadium, both have national TV coverage, and we play our first MLS playoff game at home in the new stadium, but we go out in the first round.

OFF MY SOAPBOX

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