May 14, 2008 by f4denz.

Hot vs. Cold

Well RSL is coming off a win against FC Dallas a team tied for first in the West, who only had one loss on the season. Colorado is coming off a loss against Houston, the Dynamo were winless going into the match and tied for last place in the West. It would seem that RSL should have the momentum, then add that RSL ended last year with a win at Dick’s to claim the Rocky Mountain Cup, in fact the last 3 times we have faced the Rapids in Denver we have two wins and a tie, so this is a team that we have momentum against. Colorado’s line up was consistent for the first 4 weeks of the season when they were 2-2, their line up against RSL will feature only 6 players from that line up.

Injuries and Suspensions

Colorado has seemed to be struggling since some of their star players have come back into the line up after injuries, and they still have a number of injuries affecting their line up (Petke, Casey, and DiRaimondo will probably not see action, and Cooke, and Kirovski both are probable but still nursing injuries, they will also be without McManus who is serving a red card suspension. RSL is still without Sturgis, and Joy, but Morales and Espindola are both expected to see action, so the fitness edge goes to RSL as well.

Offense and Defense

RSL has scored 11 goals so far this season, so have the Rapids, each team has only been shut out once (RSL loss at TFC, Rapids loss at home against San Jose), RSL has 3 players with 2 or more goals, Colorado has one. Colorado’s 11 goals have come from 10 different players, RSL’s goals have come from 6 players, RSL has taken more shots than the Rapids 93 to 81 and RSL also leads in shots on goal 42 to 32.

Defensively, RSL has given up more goals 12-9 than Colorado, both team have had the same keeper in all their matches so far this season. Nick Rimando has a 1.71 goal against average for RSL, and Bouna Coundoul has a 1.29 GAA, so a slight advantage goes to Colorado. RSL has reworked their defense and the projected line up for this match is a different look than last weekends win against Dallas, with Wingert and Beltran on the outside, and Olave and Borchers on the inside.

There is no real clear winner in the battle of offense and defense but a slight advantage has to go to the Rapids

Prediction

So I have a feeling this will be a very exciting match, RSL has scored most of their goals in the first 30 or last 30 minutes of the match, Colorado has only scored one goal in the first half and 7 of their 11 in the last 30 minutes. A quick start for RSL could be a very good sign, but they will need to work to keep the lead, as both teams have given up 3 goals after the 75^th minute, so whatever you do make sure you watch until the end. Last weekend RSL played poorly but still were better than Dallas who played worse, Colorado was out played by Houston, and despite their panicked attempts at the end, they were not up to the task. Both teams have faced Chicago (RSL tied at home, Rapids lost on road), DC United (both teams won at home), and Galaxy (Rapids won at home, RSL tied at home), so there is no real tell there. I have to go out on a limb, since the Rapids have either won or lost every week and recent trends (3 of 4) have been loses, I am going to pick RSL to win the first leg of the RMC 2-1.

OFF MY SOAPBOX

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May 14, 2008 by f4denz.

OFFICALLY ON MY SOAPBOX

OK, so this week I have been doing a little reflecting about RSL, and here are my thoughts

First let’s take a little look at some history, so a year ago John Ellinger was out as head coach and Jason Kreis went from team captain to head coach, and within a few months the rumblings had already started, why did RSL go with someone with no coaching experience, why didn’t we find a big name coach, was this a temporary move, and many other questions were asked. Then came the start to this season, it was one game in and people were proclaiming RSL dead, Jason should be out, and discounting the season, why? Because Blanco scored a great goal in the last seconds of the match, something that over the last 3 years has been a habit of RSL, but now 7 matches into the season one should look to that first game and consider something very different. Chicago has 5 wins, one loss, and the tie at RES, they have given up a total of 3 goals so far this season, and if we got a 1-1 draw against a 5-1 Chicago today most fans would be content with that result against one of the top two teams in MLS. So let’s do a little comparison:

First the points (currently 7 weeks in tied for best in team history 2005)

Now let’s look at goals scored (since the 4-0 DC United win we have been above normal)

Next up goals against (since the 1-4 loss at United, we have been higher than average, but still not as bad as 07)

So what does it mean? It means it is way too early to give up on the season, and way too early to think we are a top tier team. I do have to believe that while listening to other teams coverage of RSL matches, the comments that RSL is an improved side and early in the season looks like a playoff contender are right on target. Those comments have come from the Fire, DC United, Galaxy, and FC Dallas announce teams, granted the DC comments came from our 4-0 win (the season highlight) and not the 1-4 loss (the season lowlight).

The recent big story has been the LA Galaxy match, the officiating, Jason’s comments to the media, the MLS reaction, and now the US Soccer review of the officiating. As I have stated, I like that Jason voiced his opinion and concern, it was worth the fine, it was worth the suspension, and now it is up to MLS to review the punishment (since both Galaxy calls that were mentioned by Jason have raised suspicions by US Soccer) and either impose the same punishment on the officiating crew, or issue a public statement of intent to improve the officiating in the league.

I have from the start thought that Jason would make a good MLS coach, he knows the league and style of play in MLS as well as anyone, he knows the talent in the league having played with or against almost 90% of the current players in the league, he is demanding, but no more of his players than he is of himself, and he has worked with new GM Garth Lagerwey to bring in exciting new talent. In just 12 months almost the entire roster has been reworked, we have matched our best start in team history, we have scored more goals than in the past, and while we still have some issues on defense, I believe that will come as our new line up has looked good the past couple weeks. I think the improvements have been the right ones, I think Jason will get RSL into the playoffs, and I think Garth is working on a summer surprise roster move (will it be a DP?).

RSL travels to Denver to face off in the first of the Rocky Mountain Cup matches this year, I expect a great match Thursday night and I will post my preview and prediction on Wednesday.

OFF MY SOAPBOX

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